Archive for March, 2016

Palmyra, as in ancient times, is shaping Syria’s outcomes.

Russia, together with the Syrian Army, has retaken Palmyra and invited the US to clear up the site.

This is an important piece in the chessboard.

-Palmyra will be used to smooth the differences between Russia and the West – at least in Syria.

– Palmyra cuts a deep wedge in the IS territory. It is the most serious defeat for IS as it links two sides of the Syrian Army (there is  Syrian division under siege a bit north of it)

What is the outcome.


Islamic State now is in a serious problem.

Russia showed the world that if you want to intervene in the Middle East – you need to play their game. Intervene with brutality and no moral issues with collateral damage (as the US did in the Normandy invasion – 25,000 French civilian killed in 2 weeks) and then get out. And use ground troop of the strongest candidate (true Assad is a killer, but anyway there are no good parties there

Syria will be likely to become a multiple state. But this in the future as Turkey hates the Kurd.


Islamic State as it struggles for relevance and victories will try to do more terrorist attacks where it can in Europe/US – but Turkey is a primary target as it is “easier” due to the larger Muslim population – with a quite a lot pro IS (there has been quite a few fight from pro IS students in the University of Istanbul). Polls stat that 8.3% (6.6 million) of the Turkish population supports IS and 19% (15.1 million) do not express an opinion on a total population of 79 million.


In a new Chinese economy is gettar you diversificare in a new Australian econmy

Bloomberg – China’s Economic Revolution Is Showing Up All Over Australia

This is just a conspiracy theory. It is quite a while that I see bits and pieces that do not match in the string of terror attacks and Muslim “invasion” .

There is a 2008 Harvard study about the use of migration as a weapon of war.

In 2014 the US granted special VISA to 1519 persons all linked to paramilitary subsersive organization from dismantled pro US rebel group ‘black Ops’ (Cuba, Iraq, Kosovo Liberation Army etc)(font Strategic Culture Journal)

The Tweet stats say that about 45% of the Germans welcome immigrants come from UK, USA and Australia (only 6% from Germany).

Immigration as a weapon has been used various time. Recently US (Vietnam) China (Tibet) Hitler (Poland), Stalin (USSR).

Analyzing the flux the target is Germany which is the core of Europe.

What is the target? Democracy. As the situation deteriorates the people will ask for a strong man.
And the terror attack are used as a ‘primer’ for the shift.

Before you dismiss this please look at history.

Italy in the 1970 was in a terror war between the black (US assisted terrorist), the reds ((USSR  assisted terrorist) and the state. The years were so ferocious that are still called “The years of lead” (for the amount of cartridges spent). On top of this already bad situation the Masonic Lodge P2 headed by Licio Gelli got togheter with a part of black ops Italian Secret Service (Gen Musumeci) with the objective to stoke this terror war (eg blowing up the Bologna train station) and create the condition for the return of a right wing dictator.

At the end the Italian carabinieri (police) found the truth and arrested all the main culprits as anyone can find in Italian Court hearing. They were convicted, but with various special treatments (too big to be arrested for real).

This is history not a conspiracy theory. Well it would make a great movie!

So it is not impossibile that someone could think about it.
Also even if the data points towards the US…it could be Russia. It is a spy game.

Trump and Clinton finances

Posted: March 23, 2016 in Uncategorized

Well there has been quite a few tv programs about Trump dodgy finances and various bankrupcies. It shows that sometime he tried and failed. It shows that sometimes is a cruel and shrewd businessman and he came from a wealthy family. As they all are if they made so much money.

What about the Clinton family? Before Bill presidency they were well off, bit normal
After that they started as professional speakers racketing serious money.

An independent Organization, Judicial Watch, made successful bid to disclose their trust account details. They received at least $48 million from donation and speaking fees from Saudi Arabia, Lybia, Congo, Algeria, Iran, China. And also from the US State Department.

Be careful what you wish for.

State of the Markets 22 March

Posted: March 22, 2016 in Uncategorized

Well, at least in the US, we are back where we started in term of pricing.

Unfortunately, as I keep repeating, this is more of a lull within the storms.

As volatility was excessive in January/February – it is too low now…with no real changes.

For the technically minded,  almost 90% of US shares are in overbought territory (as of Relative Strength Index 9 days).

Gold hovers between USD1,200 -1,280 as it is waiting – in this period gold is a function of the Yuan in China. China successfully stabilized its currency for the moment – but I never saw a nation successfully protecting his currency when not backed by the economy. The Yuan pushed over 6.50 (vs USD) – but its natural trajectory is 7 or over.

Oil as a resistance around $42 and probably will have to revisit at least USD30-32 before moving higher for real.

So what is happening next? Probably we will have a sideways (consolidating April) move (SP500 potentially up to 2,100..but it looks tired) and then Brexit and China will hit again.

By the way JP Morgan, Bank of America and many others are thinking on similar lines.

The rise of the Trump(s)

Posted: March 19, 2016 in Uncategorized

The rise of Trump, as Farange in UK or Le Pen in France, is only a symptom.

The rise of the Trumps means that Trump could not win, but in a few year someone like him will rise. It is inevitable.

After 2008 there has been a massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the super rich.
Apart the terrorist attacks (very spruiked by the media. The 70s were worse), the influx of immigrants is changing the leaving conditions. This morning from a friend I learned that a homosexual couple in Germany feels threatened as they targeted by Muslim youth. I have nothing against immigrants or homosexuals , but this is an example: when you feel threatened in your own country I know what happens.

You can read it in the speeches of Adolf Hitler. It is the same.
I know that even the speeches of Trump are similar to the one Hitler. He could be mad, but he is a marketing man, he just knows that the people wants it as the people are angry to be robbed of  their wealth, security and, at the end, country as they know it.

When people are angry be afraid, very afraid. 

The fire is starting to burn in the US. If Trump wins, but he is short of 1237 delegates the convention will chose the next Presidential candidate.

And the Republican establishment is hell bent to avoid Trump as Presidential candidate.

But the people are voting for Trump against the establishment.

There are people (Trump and also Cruz) saying that there could be riots. And the delegates phones and homes can be easily be found on the web.

In my previous post I was saying it will be a battle for democracy I did not think literally.

Another international masterstroke of Putin (unfortunately is not as good in economy and internal politics, but that is another story).

Russia has declared Mission Accomplished in Syria and is leaving the fight. Unknown to many also Iran declared mission accomplished and ordered the main corp of Hezbollah to go back to Lebanon and protect its frontier.

When all the West was expecting an Afghanistan style quagmire, Putin showed that he learned his lessons.

He intervened when the Syrian government was failing, reinforced it and made it regain the initiative and now is backing out (but still giving support).

In a sense the West should learn. You cannot impose democracy in a society that is not ready (in Europe it took over 100 years and multiple wars in the XIX century before we arrived to what we consider democracy).

It obtained what it could (he could not link Syria and Ukraine in a discussion with the US), but now it will be strong part of the peace talk and in a better position in discussing the European sanctions (July).

Also now that Russia stops the main bombing also the immigration flow will slow.

Russians continue their tradition of being master chess players on multiple strategies.

Race on: Trump and Clinton

Posted: March 16, 2016 in Uncategorized

Well that is quite a definitive Super Tuesday 3.

Funny things. A race is not over till it is over – but

Trump could be not elected only via dodgy schemes of the republican conventions (there are some rules -quite difficult to understand and explain. In effect if he does not reach 1237 delegates things can get really messy. Also if he reaches that level there are other rules that could apply. Definitely quite far from Democracy, but a clear and definite risk since the establishment hates him.

Kasich won also, but he would need more than all the candidates to win. That the news spruce him so much just tell you that he is an establishment guy.

Clinton instead is set for a clear run. Unless the FBI really indicts her with charges related to the email scandal (the grand jury just granted immunity to a senior staffer). If this play out, again weird rules apply and probably it will not Sanders to become candidate, but  a special ballot at the convention with numerous potential candidates. But clearly, from several interviews,  she is the best candidate in the opinion of President Obama – a powerful friend.

The polls in a Trump vs Clinton are still full on for Clinton (5 polls to 1)- but for the first time USA Today in a 15 March poll the winner was Trump.

It seems a race for Establishment vs Democracy to me. A more interesting race than ever!


From Politico.comCapture Trump vs Clinton

Markets: too fast too furious

Posted: March 15, 2016 in Uncategorized

The recovery has been very fast and furious. I would say too fast and too furious. Volatility disappear all of the sudden. And for a week now there has been a calm…bit like a middle of the storm.

Two things are different from January…the Reserve Banks intervention and the US buy back are back on the table.

The Reserve Banks intervention was good but it is following the path of diminished returns. They almost exhausted the ammo.

Corporate buy back are the chat of the week. They are the biggest buyer of US equity and pretty much the last one.

Quite difficult to explain the intricacy of it in a fast blog. But essentially the companies do not know what to do with the money so they use the debt market to buy their own stock as there is no better allocation. But when the Fed raises the interest rates…there are better allocations. At the moment or the US companies return to real growth…or they will tank. Watch out.