Archive for May, 2019

Iran vs USA

Posted: May 16, 2019 in Uncategorized

The tensions between Iran and the US are again rising .

Two Saudi tankers got attacked. There are other few information of a previous sabotage at a oil refinery. Two Houthis drone attacked a refinery deep inside Saudi territories (whereas before where always confined to the border).

There is no proof that it is Iran, but most likely it is. Why?

There is a major sophistication in the attack – the attack were completely undetected . The attack on the ships show an intent to damage and not sink the boats. Even the drone attack were aimed at disrupting – not destroying the refinery.

Most likely is an Iranian signal that they are really not happy of the US crippling sanctions.

The US is steadily building and army in Saudi Arabia and while President trump is against a war, both Bolton (Security adviser) and Pompeo are pining to attack Iran and settle scores that started in the 1970s.

While especially Bolton thinks that would be an easy war – I tend to disagree.

Iran is the supreme specialist in asymmetric war having fought with Israel for decades. It uses proxies very efficiently. Practically beat Islamic State on the ground.

After the virus attack that destroyed the nuclear centrifuges, it even has one of the largest cyber army.

While tariff wars does not scare me, a Iran/ USA war scares me.

It will become suddenly a USA/Saudi/Israel vs Iran -admitting that Russia and China will not intervene openly to support Iran. Oil will pass USD$100 and cripple the economy.

A very scary scenario indeed. Let’s hope that President Trump has control of his dogs of war.

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Media and tariffs

Posted: May 16, 2019 in Uncategorized

I am no fan of President Trump, but the media is very biased.

It is true that tariffs have a direct repercussion on the consumer (US and Chinese alike), but running some numbers the number are very low.

An increase from 10% to 25% on USD200 billion is…USD30BN.

Monday stock market rout spurred by the media costed USD700 billion!!

The total taxes that US taxpayers pays each year is USD5.51 trillion and US GDP is USD20.5 trillion. Even if President Trump hit every single Chinese product the number would be USD135 billion.

Too little to have an effect on the US. Also the spat with US farmers is bad…but only for rich farmers. But US consumer is happy as wheat cost 20% less.

All in all is a battle for the US Presidency.

The media, Democratic leaning for the majority are trying to crash the stock market – as this would damage Trump re-eelction pprospects.

President Trump wants to llook hard on China – as Democrats are soft on China – and there is a rising story of the son of ex VP Biden, primary Dem candidate, signing a major private contract just two days after his father visit to China during Obama (as he did with Ukraine.

So, do not listen make your own mind.