The tensions between Iran and the US are again rising .
Two Saudi tankers got attacked. There are other few information of a previous sabotage at a oil refinery. Two Houthis drone attacked a refinery deep inside Saudi territories (whereas before where always confined to the border).
There is no proof that it is Iran, but most likely it is. Why?
There is a major sophistication in the attack – the attack were completely undetected . The attack on the ships show an intent to damage and not sink the boats. Even the drone attack were aimed at disrupting – not destroying the refinery.
Most likely is an Iranian signal that they are really not happy of the US crippling sanctions.
The US is steadily building and army in Saudi Arabia and while President trump is against a war, both Bolton (Security adviser) and Pompeo are pining to attack Iran and settle scores that started in the 1970s.
While especially Bolton thinks that would be an easy war – I tend to disagree.
Iran is the supreme specialist in asymmetric war having fought with Israel for decades. It uses proxies very efficiently. Practically beat Islamic State on the ground.
After the virus attack that destroyed the nuclear centrifuges, it even has one of the largest cyber army.
While tariff wars does not scare me, a Iran/ USA war scares me.
It will become suddenly a USA/Saudi/Israel vs Iran -admitting that Russia and China will not intervene openly to support Iran. Oil will pass USD$100 and cripple the economy.
A very scary scenario indeed. Let’s hope that President Trump has control of his dogs of war.
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