I dare to say that all media and commentator got the summit wrong.

A summit, by definition, is an establishment of rapport. There is no winner or loser. It is simply to give power to the real negotiators to negotiate with the full backing of the powers they represent.

Saying it is a North Korea or Chinese win is just an anti-Trump media scoring point. If it was President Obama the media would have already demanded a Nobel peace award).

The summit dispelled 70 years of mistrust and put the basis of serious talks from ground zero.

Yes, we do not know the future and the wording was similar to the 1994 agreement. But that agreement was never backed in person by the Commander in Chief of each nation.

So give to President Trump what is of President Trump. He has done what no US President ever succeeded to do.

Now a new era is open. We do not know if it ill be a success or not.

It could even deliver a blow to China if Kim leans towards the US.

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I am quite surprise that with all the mega headline on G7 (or G6+1) the media at large is missing the point.

This is all the strategic battle for Trump not to lose Congress in the mid term election.

The G7 was a failure due to the US tariff against his own friend? No – it was a win for Trump’s electorate – President Trump DELIVERED what he promised – hit the one that undercut (or better said, are perceived to) the US. He delivered for his electorate.

The “peace” with Kim Yong Un. Yes nothing has changed (similar promises were made in 1994)* and potentially President Trump got into a China trap – doing what China wants.

He did not start another major war, the relations are much better than before and less military cost for the US to protect South Korea and Japan – again exactly what he promised the US electorate.

I also have two gripes (and I am not pro-Trump)

-If President Obama had a similar achievement (instead he had wars with Lybia, Ukraine, Syria partially) – the media would have give him already a Nobel prize.

-After 70 years of “at war” status – you cannot pretend a detailed peace prize. It is already very good that they did not left Singapore with the promise of killing each other.

In the middle east, President Trump made some kind of agreement with Israel and Russia to take care of it and repelled the Iran nuclear agreement. Again President Trump DELIVERED to his electorate.

So this is not a new President Trump going mad. It is simply the Republican strategy to hold on to the US Congress in November 2018.

As a strategy it is delivering. The Democrats were hopeful of a “blue wipe-out” (blue is part of the Dem symbol), the last election round instead showed a much more balanced situation.

The battle for the mid term election is started.

Democrats are concentrating on California – atypical Democratic state, but winning more votes is essential and they just enlisted ex President Obama as a spearhead against President Trump.

Do not discount President Trump and his representation on the media. The US economy is better than ever before (even if still has issue) and the fight on tariffs is exactly what President Trump promised his electoral base.

The first election battle on Tuesday (8 states primary election) confirmed not a wipe-out scenario as the media headline would indicate…but quite a balanced outcome.

Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to win the House of Rep. In the Senate they need to pick just 2 seats, but lose none (and they are contested in 26 out of 49)

So no Red Wave (Democrats) or Blue Wave (Republican) at this moment.

 

 

The GDP data came in and it was better than forecast, practically translates to a growth of 3.1% -best since 2011.

But 50% is attribute to LNG, coal, iron ore. Practically all other data are flat.

Wage growth (what we really needed is not-existent. The wage growth actually declined from 1.7%pa to 1.6%pa and income per employee is slightly better in the public sector.

Consumption growth was flat, notwithstanding a decline in savings.

Again all commodities dependent – which means China. As China is starting to reign in credit, this GDP growth level is not sustainable.

  • Australia records first annual decline in home values since 2012: CoreLogic reported a 0.1% m/m decline in Australian capital city home values over May, taking the y/y change to (0.4%) – the first negative result since October 2012. May was the eighth consecutive monthly fall in home prices. Sydney’s yearly rate of decline quickened to 4.2%, though Melbourne took over as the weakest housing market over the three months to May, with values there down 1.2% over the period.
  • Sydney home sellers forced to discount by up to 10%: Business Insider reported that Sydney real estate agents confirmed common discounting of ~10% on home prices as the market stays subdued. Even in pricier eastern suburbs, agents spoke about discounts of 5-10%.

Battle for Italy

Posted: May 28, 2018 in Uncategorized

President Mattarella turned down the elected Government as (he said) I have to protect the Italy in Euro idea and I cannot allow that the markets will make lose Italian money and blow up the BTP/Bund spread.

This is really grave and it starts an Italian Constitutional crisis.  As the pressure comes from Germany and the rating agency.

It is like Europe, the Euro and the financial institution are more important than the Italian vote.

Apart that is not technically democracy, it is not in the President power to establish if Italy has or has not to stay in Europe.

Really the elites pulled all the stops and did a white golpe.

For my Australian friends, it is like the Governor General would stop an elected Australian Government under pressure of the Queen and the rating agencies.

What happens next it should be a new election.

The elites will try to form a non-elected technical government (so not a party elected government, but someone that is an outsider…usually from the Bank of Italy of the IMF – partial to the elites).  Already, as if it was already established, a potential technical has been called in – but it seem that the revolt within ranks was too strong.

If Italy foes to the election, it would be 9 September. And there is a good chance that M5Star and League could get so many votes that the win would be theirs anyway.

If this happens the European elites will have to tremble for real.

I am personally very upset.

President Trump cancelled the meeting with Kim Yong Un on the pretext North Korea was aggressive.

Sorry this time Kim has reason.

Both the security adviser Bolton and the Vice President Pence referred to the Libya disarmament model.

Gaddafi renounced to the weapon of mass destruction in 2003. After an initial “welcoming to the UN society” NATO started a revolution in Libya to which Gaddaffi could not defend himself anymore.

He was killed in 2011 after failing to stop the US and NATO.

Any sane man would not like that model.