Geopolitics of oil -2017

Posted: December 22, 2016 in Uncategorized

Oil is on the rise.

The OPEC agreements created a boost for oil.

Oil at this point as a clear trajectory targeting USD60 and could even overshoot to the mid/high USD65/70.

But the world has changed.

OPEC agreements, historically, have never been respected.

Russia (non OPEC) cannot stop production as the wells would freeze.

US, Indonesia are not part of OPEC. (Indonesia just left)

US shale gas producers are ramping up production and President Trump is “pro oil”

The rise of the electrical car.

So, aside an initial window of opportunity, oil will retrace to its USD40 baseline

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Comments
  1. Ash says:

    Though US shale oil/gas producers need a high oil price to make their production profitable … an interesting equation.

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