State of the Markets 22 March

Posted: March 22, 2016 in Uncategorized

Well, at least in the US, we are back where we started in term of pricing.

Unfortunately, as I keep repeating, this is more of a lull within the storms.

As volatility was excessive in January/February – it is too low now…with no real changes.

For the technically minded,  almost 90% of US shares are in overbought territory (as of Relative Strength Index 9 days).

Gold hovers between USD1,200 -1,280 as it is waiting – in this period gold is a function of the Yuan in China. China successfully stabilized its currency for the moment – but I never saw a nation successfully protecting his currency when not backed by the economy. The Yuan pushed over 6.50 (vs USD) – but its natural trajectory is 7 or over.

Oil as a resistance around $42 and probably will have to revisit at least USD30-32 before moving higher for real.

So what is happening next? Probably we will have a sideways (consolidating April) move (SP500 potentially up to 2,100..but it looks tired) and then Brexit and China will hit again.

By the way JP Morgan, Bank of America and many others are thinking on similar lines.

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