Archive for February, 2016

Stock Market

The market recovered a lot and there is still an upside bias, but everything can turn on a dime.

The issues are several. Technically, the market can resume an uptrend only if the SP 500 goes 2,100.

SP500 2,100 is quite far away considering all the tremors in the market (including Brexit now). So the chance that this is nothing else that the last moment to exit are quite high.

Also last week big rally has seen very low participation (volumes were -13% in respect the normal 2016 average, including a rise in the Goldman Sachs Short Most Shorted Shares and increase of Short Interest Cover -Font Bloomberg.


Also in the real economy we just see OK data, . The G20 was as usual inconclusive (expected since President Obama is now in a “lame duck” situation) and the Reserve Banks interventions are following a pattern of diminishing returns.

So apart some short term up bias – not much good news. Sorry!


Greece, the German colony

Posted: February 26, 2016 in Uncategorized

Last year I was very disappointed to the kneeling of the Greeks. They resisted more to Nazi Germany than Merkel.

Now the outcome: Austria with the ex Yugoslavia state had a meeting considering to block the immigrant passage. Athens got so angry they recalled the ambassador.

So Turkey is not stopping the boats and the Balcan states are blocking the flow. The NATO  patrols are to save lives (not turn the boat) and the Turkey deal*  is still far.

The German colony will become easily the immigrant warehouse of German Europe.

The UK should take note.

*Turkey is using the immigration issue to force Europe to accept Turkey, a Muslim and undemocratic nation) as EU state.

In 4 months there will be the Brexit referendum. Europe and PM Cameron will use the fearmongering strategy successfully used with Scotland and Greece. Already the military paint a scary picture and soon after currency volatility and credit spreads went on overdrive.
Historically the Brexit feelings and the economic status of Europe that go hand in hand…which means a Brexit is more probable than other times.

Moreover specially what happened with Greece exposed the fact that Europe is a benevolent Fourth German Reicht.

As people realize that the famous words of Winston Churchill come into my mind. We will fight on the seas, we will fight on the beaches, we will fight on the hills…we will never surrender!

This is the Battle of Britain reloaded. Britain already defeated Germany once under enormous duress. Now we see if they have still the guts.

The market data say Yes. 

Funny enough the referendum is the 23 June…the Battle of Britain started the 10 July 1940. As Churchill said…never so much by so many to so few

At the end of 2014 i a post I wrote…a Tom DeMark signal…the index will stay bound range and then crash.

Quite a foresight. Now a mini DeMark indicator (first of three confirmation points in this week) went off …if confirmed indicates a bottom of the market at least between SP 1,786 – 1,736.

Seat belts on, please.

26 February UPDATE: The signal has NOT been confirmed

A new terror phase in Turkey

Posted: February 23, 2016 in Uncategorized

Last week attack in Turkey represents a new evolution of terror attack.

It uses a more sophisticated technic similar to IS, but it was probably carried by some independent Kurds terror cell as retaliation to the Turkish massacres in Southern Turkey and Syria.

I will not bother you with details, but it could really be the start of something similar to the Italian Years of Lead in the 70s.

The US Lybian bombing

Posted: February 23, 2016 in Uncategorized

Scouring my fonts I found the real motivation of the new US bombing in Syria as the attack location did not make much sense.

In effect it was a training camp, but  the target of the IS operatives was a Mumbai style mass attack in Tunisia in order to start a civil war. And that is why the collateral damage of 2 Serbian Embassy personnel was acceptable for the US.

I always tell you that the last two years crowded trades (the trades where the majority of people agree upon) are not working.

I found a nice study, apart my own, from UBS that shows what I mean and where the dangers lurk.

The main crowded trades are LONG USD, US Healthcare (unwinding since August 15), Japan Telecom, Asian IT.

Another is Short Energy, Short Gold and Commodities in general (and commodities countries such Brazil, Russia and naturally Australia and Canada)

A big one yet to materialize is the current LONG Developed Market Short Emerging Markets (will have to see the USD strenght to see…but hard to pick) and Large Cap vs Small Cap.

Another big trade is Indexing…with everybody going towards Exchange Traded Funds.

What does it mean? Let’s see years to date (local currency):

ASX -6.1%

ASX Financials -10%

ASX Energy -4.6% (surprise!)

US SP500  -6.6%

Gold +16%

Oil -20%

Iron Ore +9.6% (surprise!)


The war on cash

Posted: February 19, 2016 in Uncategorized

If you read this article probably you know that quite a few leaders from Europe, US and Japan are arguing that cash should be banned!

Apart the security issue as all credit card transaction can be traced (so much for Western society freedom) there is also an economic reason.

If you look at China weakness and Yuan depreciation at world level, this is massive deflation exporter.

Deflation is scary as hell. As history teaches Japan got gripped with deflation and it is still struggling to escape from it after more than 20 years, with stock indexes 50% less than the top  (Nikkei 225 was 38995 in 1989!).

Combine this figure with the fact that quite a few Central Banks  (Europe, Sweden and Japan for now) are implementing NIRP strategy (Negative Interest Rate Policy…the bank has to pay the Central Bank a fee to keep cash) as an ultimate weapon to combat deflation.

The big issue is that the big banks are losing money with this policy as they do not dare to charge depositors to keep their cash as depositors could decide to just keep the cash under the mattress.

If you had a cashless society the issue would not exist and the banks will happily charge you to keep the money.

Happy Bank Happy Government …ok you not so happy…and you leave in a democracy. Tough luck.

Again as Su Tzu’s The Art of War says…if you know your enemy there are solutions.

Massive Short Squeeze

Posted: February 18, 2016 in Market Crash, Uncategorized

Well we have seen a massive short squeeze. Only 2 times since 1990 the US Indexes had three consecutive days of rally.

So is the volatility period finish?

In reality it is quite probable that it is not finished yet. Nor the US Index nor the Australian recovered even the simplest of indicators (Moving Average 50 or 200) – so the rally is welcome, but has very little significance.

On a pure technical analysis basis…it is more a last occasion to sell than anything else.

A typical sign of a short squeeze  is that the Most Shorted Stocks all rallied the hardest (average +5%) .

Also there are too many divergences coming from the mainly institutional markets (volatility/derivatives, credit spaces, Treasury and gold) that indicate an “I do not believe the rally” position.

Lavrov in Switzerland said 2 things…we are back cold war (his word…sometime I don’t know if we are in 1962 (Cuban crisis) or 2016).  And the second is that if Turks and Saudi enter Syria it will be a third war world or at least a full on regional war.

Meanwhile Turkey started bombing around Aleppo to defend the Western backed rebels and Syria moved some warplanes to Turkey.

So now pay attention ..if the Western media start spinning a “rescue mission” from Turkey and Saudi to Aleppo that would put directly in contact Turkey/Saudi and Iran/Russia.

And that is what Lavrov is warning us.

Let’ s hope that Kerry (US Secretary of State) and Lavrov ceasefire holds!

PS. Russia have score to settle with both countries. Apart the downing of the SU24, Saudi Arabia also have been accused to help the US in decreasing the oil prices so being part of thr demise of the USSR in the ’80s and the current Russian crisis…so very much the Evil Kingdom