investorpolitico

there is a war of world between Russia and Israel – usually quite a pacific relationship out of respect.

After the recent US and Israel attacks, Russia is negotiating to send to Syria its more advanced S300 anti aircraft missile. Not as advanced as the S400- S500, but a 10 year technological jump in respect of what Syria has available now.

The issue stands that Israeli (and other) aircraft are currently shooting at Syria from the airspace of the neutral Lebanon (technically, an invasion per se).

The current Syrian systems do not have the range to shoot the aircraft, they can jut try to intercept the missiles.

The S300 has a range of circa 250km, so it can hit airplanes above Lebanon and Israel – so it is a game changer.

Also the S300 can be operated only by the Russian Army due to expertise – so an Israel attack on the systems before operational would create Russian Army casualties.

While President Putin can accept Russian mercenaries casualties, he cannot accept Red Army casualties.

Hopefully it is only a negotiating tactic to stop the lost Western war against Assad.

The 10 year Treasury yield breached the famous 3%pa. Time to run? Not…yet.

The movement seems more technical than real – almost moved by algo trading.

Even spookier is the 2 year  US Treasury yield at 2.49% (think about it…very hard for the SP500 not to generate more than 3% in a decade…..but much more possible for the SP500 not to generate 2.5%!).

In 2006 2007 it arrived to close to 5% (and people said that there was NO WARNING for the crisis. People simply did not know where to look).

We are not there (to the cliff)…but close by.

A rise in yield definitely favors the European financials.

Kim Yong Un announced the end of the nuclear test after a visit from the ex CIA chief Pompeo and a visit to China.

We never knew what happened. Probably an exchange like ” we leave you South China sea and you take care of North Korea”. Or something about tariff.

Whatever is it is a great step…and something no US President ever achieved from Bush Senior to President Trump is achieving more than other Presidents. And the media hate him for that.

I am not saying he is good, but let your mind be open to positive surprise. President Obama was looking good, but did also evil deeds ( Lybia , Ukraine etc). There is more to President Trump that meet the eyes.

Syria and Israel is more Iran-Israel than Syria.

This is one of the most incandescent scenario.

Israel keeps on hitting Iranian targets without any regard of international rules and Iran keeps on building foreign presence – again in disregard of international rules.

The situation is increasingly going for the worse. Israel just withdrew its elite F15 squadron  from the most interesting war scenario training in Alaska – as it needs to keep them at home in case of open warfare.

While Israel hits the Iranian base I pretty much suspect that Iran is using the recent Palestinian mass protests to infiltrate operators within Israel itself (hence the Israel extreme response to these mass protests).

Interestingly Lebanese Hezbollah (usually considered an Iranian proxy) clear told Israel they are not interested in an Iran/ Israel confrontation (as they are streched in Syria against IS and there is a Lebanese election pending)- so most of the Iranian moves are around the Golan area.

There are also few other issues at work.

Economically it has been found a large LNG field in the Mediterranean  between Cyprus and Israel – so there are a series of close call between Israel, Iran, Turkey, US, Russia,  Greece and Italy in the area ( too long to enumerate – and unreported from the media).

Israel lobbies in the US are trying to support the new security adviser Bolton (practically Dr Strangelove reborn) and Pompeo against General Mattis as Bolton and Pompeo are full on against Iran – while Mattis knows that a war against Iran will probably induce a Third World War (the Chinese ambassador clearly stated they stand with Iran). General Mattis was the one who convinced President Trump to do just a “show” attack against Syria without upsetting the Russians or Iranians excessively.

The US Congress is working on removing the “super power” granted to President Obama – the same superpower that allowed President Obama to destroy Libya (and throw it to the terrorists) without even asking the US Congress.

So there are a lot of good an bad forces at play that could shape the entire world.

During the weekend China made clear that in the war US alliance -Syria-Russia and Iran, it stands with Russia.

In the UN China said, correctly, that the US violated the UN Charter and International rules (Chinese foreign ministry).

On the Global Times (the official Politburo publication) it went further declared that the US is irresponsible in provoking and scalding a global nuclear power like Russia.

As last scary word say “Western countries continue bullying Russia but are seemingly not afraid of its possible counterattack. Their arrogance breeds risk and danger”.

It does not saying clear, but in a war they will side with Russia. And as the Chinese does not like making empty threats – at the same time of Trump’s escalation a massive Chinese fleet was exercising just off Taiwan.

In the West, the only voice of restrain were from Germany and Italy. The President of Germany clearly expressed concern about the posture of the West versus Russia. And Germany knows all too well what the wrath of Russia looks alike.

The market took the attack on its stride as one more mission accomplished.

I can tell you if Trump fires General Mattis, things will change and you will not be worried about the market at all.

How they are linked? Well strangely yesterday in the media maelstrom the media forgot to mention an interesting fact.

A Spiez Swiss chemical laboratory (so not US sponsored) find that the poison used on the Skripal agents was…Western made. How about creating a diversion (go and see the movie Wag the dog).

In Syria the attack happened even if there is no prove of law on who did it and there is no way to know (aeoind that area theee are at least 6 different war actors backed by various states from Iran to Saudi and Turkey). Anyway funny enough the US has conquered 1/3 of a sovereign country, Turkey (NATO) invaded a sovereign NATO and Israel bombs it at will. And the Western media are all fine.

The attack was quite an harmless show as the Russians warned of terrible consequences. And unnoticed from most China fielded the largest battleship group in front of Taiwan.

If memory serves you right you can notice there is a parallel …Poland and Hawaii …so it is a warning that history can rhyme also in blood. Luckily General Mattis is a studious of history. The man who saved the world.

The US has threatened to retaliate against the non-proven Syrian gas attack (why you should use a gas attack with secure reprisal when you are winning really does not make sense, by the way).

For the first time Russia declared that it would shoot down any missile and “the launching platform”. This is an escalation. Russia has already shown a capacity to intercept (April 2017 of 57 Tomahawks just under 30 hit. In the last Israeli attack (from a sovereign different country, Lebanon, but they are ally of the West-so is fine) 8 missiles were shot and only 3 landed.

Trump intended to hit immediately, but with the threat probably Grn. Mattis asked to wait. There is only a missile cruiser in the area that could be easily overwhelmed and sunk by Russian fire (!!!). Aircraft carriers just left the US (estimated arrival 5 to 15 days).

Also last week China warned the US that they are very good allies of Russia.

Now let’s hope that someone have a sense.

Otherwise we are staring at Armageddon (which location is actually very close the Golan Heights on the border with Syria).

But why Trump warning? He always criticized Obama for telegraphing his intention?

Maybe to say to the Russian and co. This is just a TV reality show to distract Mueller. So please play by the rules protest and do not start a real war.

A dangerous game.

The Eastern Mediterranean Civil Aviation Authority issued an avoid alert as a military operation is progressing.

Russian helicopters are relocating.

You know what is next.

Tensions between Russia and the West are again at sky-high level.

I have no doubt that Russia is an “evil” operator and President Putin ants to restore the USSR.

But we must remember that in geopolitics nobody is good.

There are some questions that come into my mind.

In the nerve agent Skripal case – my questions are essentially two.

• How come that a supposedly Russian trained agent using a nerve agent several times stronger than sarin failed to kill the Skripal. The Russian secret service are reknown for their efficiency (and still are – just look at how many armed rogue people they eliminated in Ukraine) and cannot kill 2 civilians? It does not sound like the Russians
• How come that the UK accused Russia after a few hours. How can they be so fast in identifying a sophisticated nerve agent.

We will never know. My very personal theory is that Mr. Skripal had for some reason a dose of nerve agent at home and accidentally got poisoned while dealing with it. The authority acted very fast not to have to explain how come a Russian double agent was allowed to have such a military weapon at home.

Syria.

It was three weeks that Russia was warning everybody (even I got the note!) that they had intelligence that someone was preparing a gas-attack and probably blaming it on Assad.

They could have well planted the idea to cover their tracks – but still applying logic it does not make sense.

Read it like this: you have fighting the East Ghouta rebels since 2013 (5 years! as long a the world war two practically!!). Finally little over 2 month ago you win a major battle driving a spearhead between factions and 15 days ago one of the factions finally surrenders. You practically have won.

What do you do at this point? You do the only thing (gas attack)  sure to attract the superpowers intervention? No sorry no one survived in Syria by being such an imbecile.

If you still do not believe me – see two unrelated links from supposedly “not fake news” sources.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38066791

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/aleppo-fake-footage-children-five-peopele-arrested-egyptian-police-a7486541.html

So, while it is possible that Assad organised the strike to finish off the rebels, it does seem unlikely.

It is possible that the rebel used gas (if you ask how they can have it – just see look at their sponsors – Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others – all very well able to provide it).

One thing sure about Syria is that the truth is never so simple and the evidence is never there.

As a major development in this story there is also another strange and more terrifying fact.

President Trump suspended a travel abroad to deal with the emergency and Russia said, for the first time,   that it would see any attack as an hostile development.

While the US sent a missile cruiser in the area, a few Russian warplanes buzzed it (flew really close) and there is an increased Russian jamming and spoofing (confusing the GPS) of smaller US drones.

China is really taking the lead from the US in saving the world (and stock market).

President Xi speech was quite conciliatory. The salient points are

• It did not attack President Trump (saying that Cold War and zero-sum games mentality are our of place)
• Strengthen intellectual property laws
• Open economy, cut tariff (specially autos)

There are no details, this is not the end of the trade negotiation – but it is an olive branch.