Archive for April, 2018


Posted: April 26, 2018 in Uncategorized

there is a war of world between Russia and Israel – usually quite a pacific relationship out of respect.

After the recent US and Israel attacks, Russia is negotiating to send to Syria its more advanced S300 anti aircraft missile. Not as advanced as the S400- S500, but a 10 year technological jump in respect of what Syria has available now.

The issue stands that Israeli (and other) aircraft are currently shooting at Syria from the airspace of the neutral Lebanon (technically, an invasion per se).

The current Syrian systems do not have the range to shoot the aircraft, they can jut try to intercept the missiles.

The S300 has a range of circa 250km, so it can hit airplanes above Lebanon and Israel – so it is a game changer.

Also the S300 can be operated only by the Russian Army due to expertise – so an Israel attack on the systems before operational would create Russian Army casualties.

While President Putin can accept Russian mercenaries casualties, he cannot accept Red Army casualties.

Hopefully it is only a negotiating tactic to stop the lost Western war against Assad.

US Treasury yields

Posted: April 26, 2018 in Uncategorized

The 10 year Treasury yield breached the famous 3%pa. Time to run? Not…yet.

The movement seems more technical than real – almost moved by algo trading.

Even spookier is the 2 year  US Treasury yield at 2.49% (think about it…very hard for the SP500 not to generate more than 3% in a decade…..but much more possible for the SP500 not to generate 2.5%!).

In 2006 2007 it arrived to close to 5% (and people said that there was NO WARNING for the crisis. People simply did not know where to look).

We are not there (to the cliff)…but close by.

A rise in yield definitely favors the European financials.

A North Korean deal

Posted: April 21, 2018 in Uncategorized

Kim Yong Un announced the end of the nuclear test after a visit from the ex CIA chief Pompeo and a visit to China.

We never knew what happened. Probably an exchange like ” we leave you South China sea and you take care of North Korea”. Or something about tariff.

Whatever is it is a great step…and something no US President ever achieved from Bush Senior to President Trump is achieving more than other Presidents. And the media hate him for that.

I am not saying he is good, but let your mind be open to positive surprise. President Obama was looking good, but did also evil deeds ( Lybia , Ukraine etc). There is more to President Trump that meet the eyes.

Syria and Israel

Posted: April 20, 2018 in Uncategorized

Syria and Israel is more Iran-Israel than Syria.

This is one of the most incandescent scenario.

Israel keeps on hitting Iranian targets without any regard of international rules and Iran keeps on building foreign presence – again in disregard of international rules.

The situation is increasingly going for the worse. Israel just withdrew its elite F15 squadron  from the most interesting war scenario training in Alaska – as it needs to keep them at home in case of open warfare.

While Israel hits the Iranian base I pretty much suspect that Iran is using the recent Palestinian mass protests to infiltrate operators within Israel itself (hence the Israel extreme response to these mass protests).

Interestingly Lebanese Hezbollah (usually considered an Iranian proxy) clear told Israel they are not interested in an Iran/ Israel confrontation (as they are streched in Syria against IS and there is a Lebanese election pending)- so most of the Iranian moves are around the Golan area.

There are also few other issues at work.

Economically it has been found a large LNG field in the Mediterranean  between Cyprus and Israel – so there are a series of close call between Israel, Iran, Turkey, US, Russia,  Greece and Italy in the area ( too long to enumerate – and unreported from the media).

Israel lobbies in the US are trying to support the new security adviser Bolton (practically Dr Strangelove reborn) and Pompeo against General Mattis as Bolton and Pompeo are full on against Iran – while Mattis knows that a war against Iran will probably induce a Third World War (the Chinese ambassador clearly stated they stand with Iran). General Mattis was the one who convinced President Trump to do just a “show” attack against Syria without upsetting the Russians or Iranians excessively.

The US Congress is working on removing the “super power” granted to President Obama – the same superpower that allowed President Obama to destroy Libya (and throw it to the terrorists) without even asking the US Congress.

So there are a lot of good an bad forces at play that could shape the entire world.

Syria and China

Posted: April 16, 2018 in Uncategorized

During the weekend China made clear that in the war US alliance -Syria-Russia and Iran, it stands with Russia.

In the UN China said, correctly, that the US violated the UN Charter and International rules (Chinese foreign ministry).

On the Global Times (the official Politburo publication) it went further declared that the US is irresponsible in provoking and scalding a global nuclear power like Russia.


As last scary word say “Western countries continue bullying Russia but are seemingly not afraid of its possible counterattack. Their arrogance breeds risk and danger”.

It does not saying clear, but in a war they will side with Russia. And as the Chinese does not like making empty threats – at the same time of Trump’s escalation a massive Chinese fleet was exercising just off Taiwan.

In the West, the only voice of restrain were from Germany and Italy. The President of Germany clearly expressed concern about the posture of the West versus Russia. And Germany knows all too well what the wrath of Russia looks alike.

The market took the attack on its stride as one more mission accomplished.

I can tell you if Trump fires General Mattis, things will change and you will not be worried about the market at all.

How they are linked? Well strangely yesterday in the media maelstrom the media forgot to mention an interesting fact.

A Spiez Swiss chemical laboratory (so not US sponsored) find that the poison used on the Skripal agents was…Western made. How about creating a diversion (go and see the movie Wag the dog).

In Syria the attack happened even if there is no prove of law on who did it and there is no way to know (aeoind that area theee are at least 6 different war actors backed by various states from Iran to Saudi and Turkey). Anyway funny enough the US has conquered 1/3 of a sovereign country, Turkey (NATO) invaded a sovereign NATO and Israel bombs it at will. And the Western media are all fine.

The attack was quite an harmless show as the Russians warned of terrible consequences. And unnoticed from most China fielded the largest battleship group in front of Taiwan.

If memory serves you right you can notice there is a parallel …Poland and Hawaii …so it is a warning that history can rhyme also in blood. Luckily General Mattis is a studious of history. The man who saved the world.


Posted: April 12, 2018 in Uncategorized

The US has threatened to retaliate against the non-proven Syrian gas attack (why you should use a gas attack with secure reprisal when you are winning really does not make sense, by the way).

For the first time Russia declared that it would shoot down any missile and “the launching platform”. This is an escalation. Russia has already shown a capacity to intercept (April 2017 of 57 Tomahawks just under 30 hit. In the last Israeli attack (from a sovereign different country, Lebanon, but they are ally of the West-so is fine) 8 missiles were shot and only 3 landed.

Trump intended to hit immediately, but with the threat probably Grn. Mattis asked to wait. There is only a missile cruiser in the area that could be easily overwhelmed and sunk by Russian fire (!!!). Aircraft carriers just left the US (estimated arrival 5 to 15 days).

Also last week China warned the US that they are very good allies of Russia.

Now let’s hope that someone have a sense.

Otherwise we are staring at Armageddon (which location is actually very close the Golan Heights on the border with Syria).

But why Trump warning? He always criticized Obama for telegraphing his intention?

Maybe to say to the Russian and co. This is just a TV reality show to distract Mueller. So please play by the rules protest and do not start a real war.

A dangerous game.