Archive for July, 2016

The establishment is terrified by Trump and pulling all the stops.

I just learnt that Reuters changed is polls question from Trump, Clinton, Neither candidate to Trump, Clinton, Other candidate. This simple change gave a 4% lead back to Clinton, after the historical lead of Trump after the convention.

US Democracy…after disposing of Sanders…now they try to take care of Trump.

One of the unforeseen consequences of the Turkey coup is a re alignment between Turkey and Russia.

Already during the coup, President Erodogan criticised the USA for harboring a suspected mastermind (part of the witch hunt).

As President Erodogan uses the golpe to eliminate all enemies, he knows well that the West will never accept.

So it is turning to Russia and mending ties.

This is very disturbing and probably the nail in the coffin for a disastrous foreign affair policy of Obama/Clinton.

Having lost Syria to the Russia/Iran coalition , now it could lose also Turkey and practically the whole Middle East (also Israel is pivoting to Russia).

If, due to terrorism and immigration, next year in Germany and France the Right wing parties win – we could really see the end of the Great American Empire.

The Australian Dollar has been stubbornly high in these months, as everybody was predicting a weakness. It even went up to 78 cents on the USD.

This situation has been created by the US Fed (which postponed rising rates), the commodity price-spike (but there is still build up of oversupply in the system) and the lack of cutting interest from the Australian Reserve Bank.

Now things are slowly starting to change as the RBA will probably cut rates between now and November, the Fed could be starting to be more hawkish and commodities prices are getting lower again.

This could push the AUD towards 70 cents. To go lower, we would need to see SP cutting the AAA rating due to the Budget Blow out (quite possible). This would tumble the AUD to 68/65 cents.

Interest rates.

Definitely there will be still a few cuts on the cards, but not lower than 1% as the RBA considers cutting to less than 1% ineffective (Quantitative Easing ,beyond that). Personally I think they will stop at 1.25%.

The big surprise for mortgage holders is that, as banks balance are under pressure due to new rules, we could have a few “out of cycle” rate hikes.

It is the German name for the Night of Broken Glasses, 9/10 November 1938 where the Nazi Germany started the persecution of Jews in Germany.

In  that night hundreds of Jewish shops git smashed, over 90 Jews were killed and in the aftermath more  than 30,000 Jews got arrested. It was the start of the Holocaust.

Yesterday a bomb gone off in a German bar….today a knife attack in small French town church, if it is confirmed that is another IS attack the situation becomes perfect for the rise of the Right.

Even the head of the French intelligence is scared that people will start getting matters on their hand. Unfortunately it is just a logical consequence, unless the normal Muslim community starts to patrol itself. In Soviet Russia there were never more 20% of Stalinists and in Germany there were just 25% of full on Nazi. People are scared of this invasion.

And the more IS is under pressure in Syria/Iraq  the more it will  try to leash out to remain relevant.

Next year Alternative for Germany and the French National Party will have the best chance to sweep into power and ir will be a  time to be scared.

If a Muslim Reichscrystallnacht will not start before.

Interesting fact…after that awful night over 300 German Nazi party officers were interviewed by a psychologist….65% were appaled by the violence and condemned racial bias and only 5% approved the violence.

You know how it ended.  

…and Trump takes the lead

Posted: July 26, 2016 in Uncategorized

Latest CNN poll after the Democratic Party scandal Trump 48% vs Clinton 45% (previous week Clinton 49% vs Trump 42%.

Trump momentum is fueled by  independents and Clinton backlash.

3 months to go

Sanders bows to the Party

Posted: July 26, 2016 in Uncategorized

Sanders, after being stabbed by the Party, bowed to the Party supporting Clinton. Not the Chinese Party, the US Democratic Party…if there is much difference.

Punts aside, it shows like in America (and mostly everywhere) candidates are party puppets for the good and the bad.

Even Trump is,  at the end, a Republican Party.

The US has three branches, President, Congress and the Supreme Court to avoid any “coup” temptation (unless you describe a shadow coup the power of the American lobbies).

But the damage has been done. Lots if Sanders voters will vote the Green Presidential candidate  Jill Stein, De facto empowering Trump.

France has been the center of terror attacks from over a year and also Germany had its series of sex assaults (New Year Eve) and really recent terror attack (not all linked to IS, but terror attacks none the less.

And next year there are two important elections in Germany and France.

If this path continues we could easily have the the rise of the Right (Front National in France and Alternative for Germany).

This two parties have something particular in common, they are anti Europe and pro Russia.

Then there is October Italian referendum (which, if it fails could get us to Italexit) and a possible Far Right Austrian President an an anti immigration referendum in Hungary.

If we add to this that Trump could become President and he has a more isolationist position (and less aggressive versus Russia)….we could see a geopolitical revolution with Europe pivoting to the Right and to Russia.

Now there will be people crying wolf, but this are times with no easy way out.

The alternative could be a President Clinton that could really start a major war with Russia.

Definitely I prefer the Right.