Archive for the ‘Europe’ Category

Greece and the share markets

Posted: January 28, 2015 in Europe, greece

If the Greek left anti-euro party Syriza won an election 2 years ago, the market would have tanked.

Now nothing happened. Why?

There are three part to the issue.

-First now the Greek debt is spread over institutions that can easily sustain the hit of a default

-Second Syriza toned down its speeches

– Third everyone is waiting to see what really is going to happen –

Germany cannot care less if Greece leaves the Europe on a debt level, BUT Germany needs Europe as its economy is based on 60% exports.

If a Grexit results in a short pain and fast recovery…a lot of countries could follow destroying the German export market.

Everybody is watching this space.

In a sense, as last year the various Reserve Banks saved the market several time, there is a complacency in the markets that I do not like.

For the first time since 2007 the various Reserve Banks have different agendas (US and “anglo saxon Reserve Banks are in tightening mode, while Europe, China and Japan are in loosening mode).

It is a different market.

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