Syria: the importance of Palmyra

Posted: March 30, 2016 in Uncategorized

Palmyra, as in ancient times, is shaping Syria’s outcomes.

Russia, together with the Syrian Army, has retaken Palmyra and invited the US to clear up the site.

This is an important piece in the chessboard.

-Palmyra will be used to smooth the differences between Russia and the West – at least in Syria.

– Palmyra cuts a deep wedge in the IS territory. It is the most serious defeat for IS as it links two sides of the Syrian Army (there is  Syrian division under siege a bit north of it)

What is the outcome.

Positive.

Islamic State now is in a serious problem.

Russia showed the world that if you want to intervene in the Middle East – you need to play their game. Intervene with brutality and no moral issues with collateral damage (as the US did in the Normandy invasion – 25,000 French civilian killed in 2 weeks) and then get out. And use ground troop of the strongest candidate (true Assad is a killer, but anyway there are no good parties there

Syria will be likely to become a multiple state. But this in the future as Turkey hates the Kurd.

Negative

Islamic State as it struggles for relevance and victories will try to do more terrorist attacks where it can in Europe/US – but Turkey is a primary target as it is “easier” due to the larger Muslim population – with a quite a lot pro IS (there has been quite a few fight from pro IS students in the University of Istanbul). Polls stat that 8.3% (6.6 million) of the Turkish population supports IS and 19% (15.1 million) do not express an opinion on a total population of 79 million.

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