Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Kurdish dream crushed

Posted: October 18, 2017 in Uncategorized

The Kurds , as the Islamic State is defeated, declared a referendum and independence.

As usual, they got used and now discarded as both Turkey and Iraq (which is an Iranian pawn) does not want it (in and around Kirkuk there is a lot of oil).

Already the Kurdish fighter are in full flight against the might of Iran which gave them an ultimatum.

Both the US and Russia have the hands tight as they are allies of the party involved (but only the Kurds are easily dismissed).

The only help they could have would be Israel – but even for Israel a direct confrontation so far from its border would be unsustainable (but probably they will help black-op style).

I am quite sad that one of the main forces that defeated IS (together with Iranian/Russian forces) again has been used and then discarded. Unfortunately it happens often.

Geopolitics 1 0 1

 

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A battle on two fronts – Iran

Posted: October 16, 2017 in Uncategorized

President Trump- still proceeding with its dismantle anything Obama, charged against Iran.

Geopolitically it is a supremely unthoughtful thing to do – even if he toned down its own version.

  1. You do not open a second front when you already confronting North Korea – specially as North Korea and Iran have been proven to collaborate on weapon system.
  2. Iran had quite serious internal problems between the various factions – the push will probably embolden and unite the military side that President Trump wanted to hit.
  3. The agreement has been supported by various side and specially the European allies of the US – so this introduce another split between US and Europe.
  4. Iran has an incredible war machine – specially in asymmetric warfare. So much so that, in running battles with Israel, it is the only side that sometimes wins and sometime lose against the almighty Israeli army (usually the other side just gets beaten)
  5. There is already an alliance Turkey, Iraq and Iran that encompasses the entire North Middle east.
  6. Iran can easily hit the US asymmetrically in Iraq and Syria at least. Or reinforce the Houthi in Yemen. And these are just easy targets.

Opening such a second front is really dangerous.

Saudi Arabia -ARAMCO sale

Posted: October 14, 2017 in Uncategorized

Saudi Arabia has changed is mind and decided to sell its crown jewel Armco (the owner of all Saudi oil) via private sales and not IPO. Or at least IPO make it to the market in minor flavour in 2019.

There quite large geopolitical repercussions if the move.

The private buyer will probably be China. This has implication both as strategic positioning (already with the Russian arms deal the Saudis were distancing from the US) and also for the USD. The USD has been the currency reserve of the world specially after the win of the 2WW and the pact to price oil in USD in 1971. And China is already testing a gold backed Yuan oil transaction system.

On the other side is an admission that even the Saudis cannot control the oil prices with fracking and EV vehicles on the rise.

North Korea

Posted: October 13, 2017 in Uncategorized

North Korea is more and more tilting towards war.

North Korea advised that they will restart usuing the Kaesong shared industrial facility (but without agreement from the South).

Several reports from Russia hints to a probable real ICBM (12,000km radius) missile test.

The war of words (now insults) is going on.

On the US the tempo of “friendly” military exercise is growing (4 this month!). Also some new weapon systems have been put in place (aircraft carrier and sub at least).

One dark theory is that there is a strange race going on. Republicans are really starting to get tired of President Trump, but they need to keep him until the tax reform is passed.

For President Trump a way to stop being impeached or deemed unfit for command would be to start a war before that as those proceedings are almost impossible to achieve in war time.

Unfortunately it makes sense. A doom race.

There is a lot of talk of Terminator killing machines, but they are still things of the near future.

In finance alghorithm trading is diffused everywhere (close to 90% of trades are alghorithmic and machine trading is a big component of it).

And in finance, in the last 3 months, the human traders are beating the machines.

The resistance has started.

Jokes apart, this low volatility period is a killer for machines. The raw data and macro situation tells the machines that the situation is bad and we are going to recession…and the market goes up.

The machine cannot understand the manipulation and other influences as it goes by logic. The market is sometime logic, but more often driven by greed and fear.

Once you know the machines you know when to run and hide and when to fight and defeat them or simply ride their path of destruction.

As they say in the movie, the resistance has started. Not easy and few human managers will survive.

Turkey and US drift apart

Posted: October 10, 2017 in Uncategorized

Turkey and the US have upped the ante by banning VISAs and other diplomatic issues.

This is the peak of almost two years of reciprocal anger between the US (and the West in general) and Turkey.

The main contentious point is, media aside, Syria.

The US in Syria sided heavily with the Kurdish Peshmerga to defeat IS and try to defeat the Syrian Army and practically creating a Kurdish de facto state. And for Turkey the kurds are terrorist.

Turkey has a population of circa 15-20% of Kurds which want independence  as they have a different ethnicity.

As Syria is being de facto split in zone of influence (Syrian Government/Iran/Russia, IS (mainly desertic area now), US/Kurdish, Turkish rebels).

Now, due to the US support, Turkey almost lost all territories in Syria as the Al Qaeda rebels (some say again supported by the US against IS) are encroaching in the Ibid province. And, as of tonight, the Turkey army entered the Ibid province to reclaim the territories, with the air support of Russia.

In effect this is one of the final moves of Turkey to shift from NATO/US alliance to a Russia/China alliance.

It is not formal as Erdogan does  not want to be seen as the one that breaks the European deal and abandon NATO and the US does not want to loose the second largest NATO army Рbut de facto the middle east is lost* to Russia and China. This has huge strategic, economic and political implications.

This is not fault of President Trump – but a major failure of President Obama and Secretary Clinton.

  • It is lost as, meanwhile, Egypt signed off a major oil field deal with Rosfnet (Russia), Libya major rebel formation of Colonel Haftar is now a Russian friend, and Saudi Arabia just signed an historic deal with Russia for $3bn or armament including the land to air S400 missile batteries and other side deal)

Russia now has Syria, Iran (and Iraq), Turkey and is making friends with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya and Israel).

Russia is making sure to be seen as the good broker by all parts in the Middle East – something rarely achieved.

Putin, master of spies, reminds me of Karla, the famous Soviet spy of John Le Carre Books.

He is brilliant on foreign policies, less so with internal growth economics -only that could bring his own fall.

President Trump: Rogue One

Posted: October 10, 2017 in Uncategorized

This past weekend President Trump showed that he cannot be tamed, not even by General Kelly.

On North Korea practically he contradicted Tillerson saying that, after a decade of failed negotiations with North Korea only one solution will work (well you can guess which one).

At a session with the military leaders he scolded everyone saying that they need to present with military plans in timely matters, notwithstanding the bureaucracy. And it finished it with the cryptic message – maybe we are in the call before the storm (and everyone is still wondering what he meant…North Korea, Iran or both?).

He lashed out against GOP Senator Corker – who is essential to pass the tax reforms.

In the coming days probably he will decertify the Iran deal (decertify means that the deal will have to pass to Congress again- it is a mainly symbolic gesture).

And this is just an highlight.

If you did not understand …there is a pattern – it is practically always doing the reverse of President Obama.

Why? You have to go back to 2011 when President Obama humiliated in public candidate Trump in a manner who would have infuriated even a lamb as Trump, even if he could – could not have answered. It was a low point for President Obama that is paying dearly (whatever you think of Trump – it is not a way to do it).

And he is notorious for not being a lamb.

You can see the anger in Donald Trump eyes and now you can feel it in President Rogue One.