Archive for the ‘Turkey, Russia, NATO’ Category

There is no question that the 2 nations are upset at each other, but they are also careful of not overstepping…until now.

All the Russian sanctions are hitting Turkey…above the belt. It is just like a show for public viewing.

If Russia really wanted to hit Turkey it would just close the energy supply. It owns more than 50% of energy flow to Turkey and all other sources are at full capacity. Cutting energy would freeze and cripple Turkish economy for good.

In Syria Russia is considering helping the PKK (Kurdish Worker Party) to fuel an insurrection in lower Turkey (it had a similar strategy during the soviet time). Until now it has been more words than actions.

Turkey per converse could block the Dardanelles straight and cut off Russia from the Mediterranean sea. This option is quite remote – as the international agreements say that the straight can be closed only in time of war…a proper declaration of war by Russia will be practically inevitable.

Where the games are done is in Ukraine. The Tartars (Turkish descent Ukrainians) are the one responsible for the cutting of energy supplies to Crimea and they say they are sponsored by Turkey.

And Turkey is trying to establish a kind of protectorate in North Syria and North Iraq upsetting specially Iran, long term friend of Russia.

Plus there is the Nagorno-Karabakh (a place behind Turkey / Georgia/Azerbaijan) that has a crossover of oil pipelines (…like Ukraine and Syria) where Russian and Turkish are trying to play polite so not to have a new Ukraine also there.

2016 will be interesting to see if Russia and Turkey will try to de escalate.

It would be interesting to see what Putin wants. He definitely new (previous post) that one of its jet fighters would be shot down.

Why he wanted it? Probably to entrench Russia in Syria with the S400 anti aircraft system (feared even by the US) and help Iran, the great Saudi enemy. As a studious of Putin…he still a grudge with Saudi Arabia (in his mind responsible of the fall of the oil prices in 1985 that finished the USSR – in the own words of Putin “last century biggest disgrace). And Putin usually keeps a grudge…forever (he hates the Americans due to the humiliation of Russia in the war against Serbia).

If not, the risk of something really very pear shaped would grow immensely.