Archive for January, 2020

Iran/USA dust settling

Posted: January 9, 2020 in Uncategorized

As I thought Iran wants regime survival and calibrated a great show off attack. Lots of noise and no killing.

It gave the perfect de_escalation tool for President Trump that does not want another sand war _ also now US is mostly Arab oil independent.

Logically this will be a long war (well Iranian started in 1983 with the Lebanon barracks bombing…).

The red line that has been crossed is actually the fact that Iranian (Russian Chinese) cannot count anymore on impunity and so they need to calculate very carefully their moves.

Oil and gold retreated, but they do represents a good hedge.

In Iran a passenger Boeing crashed. Although everyone is pointing to an accident the flight path and rate of ascent does not look like it. Iranian will not hand over the black boxes.

My $2 would go to a mistaken identity case shot down by anti_air Iranian projectile (not missile).

Another downing like the one in Ukraine were the truth will be never be known.

2020 really started with a bang!

The killing of the Iranian top general is a Rubicon moment (Julius Ceasar declaring war on Rome) for more than one issue.

The Iranian swore revenge and they will plan attacks. Not a full frontal attack as the Iranian priority is regime survival and they cannot withstand a war with the US and Israel. It will be a series or what they think are not war inducing attacks on US targets for several years (well they are doing that since 1979…).

But the real Rubicon that everyone missed is the US. Since 1983 (Lebanon barracks bombing) Iranians have harassed the US and the US behaved like a huge giant that cannot kill a fly.

The latest Iranian attacks are the downing of a US drone in Iran and several in Yemen, attack a Saudi oil refineries and tankers. At least 11 rocket launches in Iraq.

They were counting that Trump could not move as it is election year and he does not want a new Middle East war. They were wrong.

Their confidence is shown that their top general was in Iraq practically without escort and accompanied by the men held responsible of highjacking airplanes and bombing US Embassy in Somalia (as per Kuwait tribunal sentence).

President Trump showed again is complete unpredictability.

The US empire can fight back wherever and whenever it wants.

And it has to be on everybody calculus. A terminator drone is just a whisker away.

I am not a President Trump supporter, but he did a Rubicon moment. For Julius Ceasar it worked and too many always dismiss him as an idiot. No idiot can become President.

On the Dem Congress lamenting his authority, I shall remind them that their dear President Obama destroyed Lybia without Congress authorisation in 2011. And since then the massacre has been unending. Where they were then?