Archive for May, 2018

Italy to the populists

Posted: May 22, 2018 in Uncategorized

I really do not like the “populist” name- it is a derogatory name used by the elites for something that they created…the continuous decrease of wealth of the middle class versus the insane amount of new wealth created for the ultra rich (total wealth portion for the ultra rich 2008 – 42.5% of the total wealth- in 2017 50.1% – an 18% increase in less than a decade! And Ultra High Rich (net worth over USD50 million increased 500% since 2000 – Font Credit Suisse).

But in a few countries democracy still lingers and now Movement Five Star and the League are forming a government.

As in the time of Rome, Italy took the best ideas from the attempted revolution in Greece to create a real revolution.

The market has not roiled yet a Italy decided a more subtle approach to the Greek that attacted too much attention and got squashed by the elite.

They are trying different thing that are quite revolutionary

  • citizenship guaranteed income(well the “medicare” has been invented by Mussolini)
  • Mass deportation of illegal migrants (circa 500,000)
  • New tax Rate – only two brackets in Irish – Eastern Europe style
  • Minimum Pension and no raising of the age pension
  • Revision of Italy’s debt vs Europe
  • better relation with Russia (the US sanctions damage Europe, not US)
  • A strange mini- BoT (mini Italian Treasury Bond that works like an alternative currency to the Euro) – almost a Quantitative Easing for people.

We will see if it works. Definitely the elites will try everything in their power to destroy as if they succeed the German vision of Europe will be destroyed and also, economically, Germany is always scared of Italy (before the Euro, every time Italy devalued the lira, Germany went into recession).

But if there is one nation that can beat Germany at their own games is Italy. And Italy cannot be ignored like Greece, Portugal, Spain as it is too large an economy.

If it works it could start a revolution that will spread like wildfire from Italy to Australia

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1914 is the year that started the First World War, leaving a death toll of over 20 million.

Apart the back swan event – the pattern is very similar

Pre 1914

Technology was advancing super fast, cars – train – airplanes

A lot of crisis where erupting everywhere (1898 Nile, Morocco 1905 and 1911, Balkan crisis 1912-1913

The reigning empire (UK) as declining and a new empire emerging (German-Austrian Hungarian).

Industrialization was creating a new super rich elite and vast number of workers-slave.

Japan embraced the Western industrialization process and showed the world that a non Western power could rise very fast.

Then there was the trigger -assassination of the ArchDuch Ferdinand kileed by a shady terrorist called Black Hands and sponsored by a rogue part of the Serbian Secret Services. It followed a pogrom (mass killing) of Serbs (over 1,000 houses and shops were burnt – killed number unknown)

Pre 2018

Technology is advancing super fast – AI, 3D printing, Internet of Things

A lot of crisis are happening everywhere (Ukraine, Lybia, Syria, surge in conflict India/Pakistan, assertiveness of China, Korea).

The reigning empire is declining (US) and the new is rising (China)

Digitization is creating a transnational cast of super rich and populism and migration are displacing the poor.

The all Asia is embracing the Western digitization.

Only a trigger is missing. Hence everyone should be paying attention to the President Trump killing of the JCPOA (Iranian deal).

If something serious happens between Israel and Iran – we have the Black Swan that could spark a World War 3 (Iran is backed by Russia and China). And you can easily image the US Deep State planning a “a Black Hand” scenario.

I am not predicting a major war – but the elements are all there.

By the way the assassination of the Archduke happened 28 June and until August 2014  it looked alike one of the various other crisis (the official start was 28 July).

Historian Gary Sheffield  argues that in reality war was brought forward by “First, decision-makers in Berlin and Vienna chose to pursue a course that they hoped would bring about significant political advantages even if it brought about general war. Second, the governments in the entente states rose to the challenge.”

Sounds familiar to President Trump’s America First to me. Unfortunately.

The US is showing what does mean to be friend (subject) of the US.

The pattern started with Ukraine. The US imposed tariffs that mainly hit European and Russian companies, as there is very little trade between US and Russia.

Now the US is hitting unilaterally with sanctions US – and European company are asked to comply.

For the first time the EU is putting a “blocking Statue” that protects European companies from being hit from the US.

President Trump is pushing to bloc the Russian Gas North stream that generates massive income for the Russian economy – by keeping at ransom the German auto industry. It would block Russia and give a major boost to the US shale gas (and hinder European consumer as shipped gas will be more expensive and provoke inflation – the terror of the German economists).

This is the time where it will be decided if Europe will be his own country or a forever slave of the US empire.

Israel – fury and fire

Posted: May 15, 2018 in Uncategorized

First of all – my article is about geopolitics – nothing to do with pro or anti antisemitism.  Pure and simple Games of Thrones at State level.

What happened in Israel has been terrible – 55 killed (6 under 18) and about 2,000 (over 200 under 18) wounded (and the wounds from military grade weapons usually are life crippling). This is the outcome of some authorization of use extreme force, not a random event.

It is the culmination of two events – the recurrence of the birth of the state of Israel (a catastrophe for Palestinians) and the US Embassy move to Jerusalem.

The protest was huge 40,000 Palestinians (usually violent) and the answer of Israel was one of fire and fury.

No one is right here and the issues goes back to 1948….or if you want they go back to before the birth of Christ.

It is true that Israel got given (kind of…let’s not dig into it or we have to write a book) the land after the massacres of the Second World War – and, less known, it is true that Palestinians were in support of the Nazi  (Palestinian Mufti Haj Amin Al-Husseini was a prominent collaborator of Nazi Germany).

The interesting facts are instead analogies.

Both Syria and Ukraine fell in revolutions when the Government (elected in Ukraine, not so in Syria) started shooting against protests.

Why the government fell? Due to foreign intervention. Namely CIA, Saudi etc intervened to transform a protest into civil war by arming the protesters.

This is why Israel has such an issue with these protests and reacted so violently to them  – it is scared that these protests could lead Iran in doing the same thing.

Another interesting point the media are reporting the fact (how could you not?), but in a tone “Israel has the right to defend itself” (which it has – and it was wrong by Hamas to instigate the protests). If it was Russia or China the tone would be very different – immediately asking for US or UN intervention with horrifying pictures of dead children

Just to show you that the West is not the good guy – just another player in the Games of Thrones.

Property boom no more

Posted: May 14, 2018 in Uncategorized

Everyone knows that property is slowing down – but there are several non believer.

Now I found a data that you cannot non-belieb

Victoria and New South Wales are bracing for hit on Budget as property is slowing.

Stamp Duty revenue collection is forecast to grow just 3.8% – in 2017 the same forecast were 11% (-7.2%). New South Wales loss of revenues will be AUD1.1 Billion.

Usually New South Wales and Victoria just lead the cycle.

 

year to date Sydney -2.2% (and Melbourne -1%).

If it was like a listed shareit would be a loss between $22,000 and $10,000 in 5 months.

 

A funny budget this one. Long are gone the Global Financial Crisis with “deficit repair” and other ominous term. The forecasts are particularly nice (which Budget is not rosy?), specially in the wage upswing.

But it is a stalling Budget. Tax cuts and every incentive for the population at large are coming only in a few years.

It is not a bad Budget, but it is a “resting on the laurels” kind of Budget. While the electricity bills, childcare bills and other day to day creep up every day.

The issue is that there are no laurels to be rested upon.

From the GFC Australia went backwards.

2013 Debt to GDP ranked 9th in the OECD countries. Now 13th.

2017 Budget deficit 26th out of 33th

2013 Jobs available 7th and now 17th

Practically we would need  USD$5.2 billion surplus to go back to 2013.

From 2013 Australia completely missed the global upswing, after having performed exceptionally good during the GFC.

So, while not a bad Budget, it just misses the point.

Korea and history

Posted: May 2, 2018 in Uncategorized

Hopes are really high for tge North Korea/South Korea and US.

Id you remember history in 2000 there was a similar realignemnt with the father of Kim Yong Un.

Aside a lot of smile and good will (ending the war, opening a shared industrial park and tourism, reuniting separated families) it all just ended with a massive USD500bn bribe for the regime.

So we are all hoping for a better future, but realism is a must.

Even if all is good, we will need to wait and see if words become actions.

Definitely, unless China fully support North Korea, US history (Lybia,Iraq,Syria) have shown Nirth Korea that it cannot be trusted (specially Lybia is quite similar with Gadhafi renouncing nuclear weapons and then getting killed by the Clinton team).

Time and again Kim Yong Un has shown he is the smart (if violent) kid on the block.