North Korea tactics

Posted: January 15, 2018 in Uncategorized

Again North Korea is disappeared from the media radar screen.

Kim is playing a very smart game. The idea of the reconciliation to the Olympic Games (9 to 25 February 2018) is perfect to buy time to build the deterrence arsenal before the US could strike.

In all effects it is become a strategy game where Kim is trying to arrive to the “fait accompli” and negate the US strike.

It does fit perfectly with Kim dream to reunite North and South Korea, without the US (also a Chinese dream).

It is also a US nightmare, such a result would give the entire China Sea to China on a gold platter, as Korea would be a natural ally of China and Russia (look at the map…practically US would remain – as steadfast and relevant ally – with Japan and Australia in the entire Pacific).

The US knows that and they just had a series of military exercises in US that mock a North Korean war. In essence, the US are so used to fight counterinsurgency wars that need to prepare for a potential conventional war against a state

This does not mean that they have decided to make war, simply the military needs to be prepared in case that it is the choice.

And also there are differences. Contrary to Iraq wars, North Korea has real retaliatory capacities* – so the US cannot pre-warn population (say US personnel to leave South Korea) or have military build up (like Iraq invasion) as Kim Yon Un will definitely decide for a pre-emptive strike.

In a sense a potential war with North Korea will have to come out of the blue. A bit like the false ICBM on Hawaii this past weekend – it was just lucky that the ICBM did not exist and that the alarm came from a civilian agency that had no effect on US military. Errors can happen.

There are also Chinese military exercises on the other side of the frontier.

North Korea meanwhile seems to be preparing a satellite testing (not much difference between satellite rockets and ICBM..but less controversial).

So after the 25th February, the chicken game goes on.

*This behavior of the US clearly show that the CIA knew that Iraq did not have retaliatory capacity against the US troops way before it admitted it.


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