Stock Market and Economy: the Thin Red Line

Posted: February 29, 2016 in markets, Uncategorized

Stock Market

The market recovered a lot and there is still an upside bias, but everything can turn on a dime.

The issues are several. Technically, the market can resume an uptrend only if the SP 500 goes 2,100.

SP500 2,100 is quite far away considering all the tremors in the market (including Brexit now). So the chance that this is nothing else that the last moment to exit are quite high.

Also last week big rally has seen very low participation (volumes were -13% in respect the normal 2016 average, including a rise in the Goldman Sachs Short Most Shorted Shares and increase of Short Interest Cover -Font Bloomberg.

Economy

Also in the real economy we just see OK data, . The G20 was as usual inconclusive (expected since President Obama is now in a “lame duck” situation) and the Reserve Banks interventions are following a pattern of diminishing returns.

So apart some short term up bias – not much good news. Sorry!

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