Markets: beware the ides of November!

Posted: September 9, 2014 in Uncategorized

Note the “ides” is mid month in Latin. famous are the ides of March when Julius Caesar was killed.

There are a few sign of an increase danger in November.

– One of my models gave off a signal nearly identical of August 2007, 3 month before the Global Financial Crisis. Not confirmed, but it is there.

– In October there should be the end of Quantitative Easing

– Next week there are the Scottish vote and a French confidence vote on Government (very important)

– In November there are the US Mid term Election. Even if the Federal Reserve is supposedly independent it will support the market at least until then (and the Fed built this rally)

– the Congress is increasing the pressure on the FED. The Republicans are pushing for more oversight of the FED action claiming that the their Open Market . The Republicans in the House are expected to increase their majority by 6  seats and Richard Shelby of Alabama will take the lead of the Senate Banking Commitee with the the FED  in its sight. And it does have quite a few reason as in several instances the Federal Reserve denied or refused access to important information (Eg Commodities holding in the US Banks, transaction on money markets funds, denied information on emergency plans in the 2011 Debt limit impasse etc).  So in November the Congress will go gun blazing against the Fed and its unchecked and unlimited power.

 

 

 

 

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