Posts Tagged ‘USA’

What a devastating weekend for Greece. The very-similar-to what-the-Troika-proposed-conditions (which made me wonder why the referendum in the first place*) got rejected as “there is no trust” and they are still working on a deal till Wednesday.

Let me clarify for you, as it gets more complicated by each minute you read about them.

If the Germans were Americans all the media would say that they are trying to organize a financial coup d’etat (takeover of a state by violent/political/financial mean) in a democratic country.

Since Germany has a dark part, the media are embellishing the proposition.

But I do not know how to define it otherwise.

Greece would place EU50 billion of Greek State assets (ports, railways etc)  in an independent (from Greece, but dependent from the Troika)  company as a guarantee for the loans provided.

To make it clear it would be a Luxembourg based company which would be managed by Greece under the supervision of the European Commission (EG Germany).

Otherwise Greece can take a 5 year EU membership suspension to fix its own problems, with some humanitarian aid.

Now PM Tsipras has to negate all of its promises and more, becoming a German puppet government or resign (which has been always the Germany objective).

I really hope that the Greeks will finally say OXI (NO) and get the hell out of Euro, EU and NATO.

Probably the Greek Government will try to say YES and stay in the circle (and find a way around to go back on its promises).

This is clearly a financial oligopoly which do not care of people or democracy.

The markets will remain jitter prone. Still at the moment there is no contagion risk as the market goes (politically can be different)

Two interesting side – thoughts – but of extreme geopolitical instance that appeared in this round of negotiation

There is a clear “hard split” between South Europe (France, Austria, Italy) and North Europe (Germany, Finland, Slovakia).

And this was “in motion” from several years.

The most surprising (and scary) thing is that Germany, for the first time since the defeat in World War 2, completely disobeyed a US request (the US is here represented by the IMF) to negotiate with Greece for geopolitical reason.

This is most important as it means that Germany wants to rise its status as a new power (apart USA, China and Russia) within (or without) the EU.

This message will not be lost on the US (nor to Russia and China) and this shift which could have  far and reaching consequences – much more than Greece itself.


U.S. Adm. William Gortney, commander of the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) Command, warned Congress in written testimony on Thursday of the threat posed by Russian bombers and missiles.

Russians tested NORAD defence capacities in 2014 more than any year after the fall of the USSR.

This was a clear test and train exercise that, with increase long distance weapon delivery systems, decreases the chance of NORAD of effectively protecting North America from a nuclear attack (this was the essence of  US Adm Gortney speech)

Wow…sounds really Dr. Strangelove in the 1960s….but happened 2 days ago.

Everyone is rediscovering the 1960s strategy. Even Putin disappeared from the scene (cancelled a few events) and everyone is guessing what is really happening.

Both the United States and Russia see each other as unpredictable and ruthless – and Russia knows that – at conventional weapon system level – they are behind.

Nuclear deterrence is back – who would have thought?

Ukraine has just signed pact to acquire military hardware from 11 European countries. Meanwhile Russia hinted to the fact that they have (or they think to place) nuclear weapin in Crimea.

On top of that Nato gen. Breedlove, US Assistant Secretary of State Nuland and CNN (eg 13 March) are orchestrating a media campaign similar to the pre invasion of Iraq).

I hope they saw the Russian memo that say that any attack on Rodina (motherland for the Russian) can be retaliated with nuclear weapons without any further authorisation. And Russia is not Iraq. They have over 1600 wmd.



Well when all the newspapers say that now there is almost a working truce in Ukraine….what is happening is actually is the reverse.

There has been the death of Nemtsov. Some accused the FSB (ex KGB) and some accused the CIA to create a pretext (not the first time address up operation. And this follow a strange accident that killed the pro Russia French CEO of Total in Moscow by few months (supposedly a drunk person went on Moscow airfield colliding with the private jet…it sounds very Bourne Ultimatum to me).

Anyway my theory on that one (pure speculation) is a hit by Russian nationalist (not President Putin) on someone seen Pro Ukrainian.

But what this post is about is that both the US and the UK are sending boots on the ground (173 Airborne Brigade) in Ukraine to train the Ukrainian Army.

This is a clear act of aggression and direct involvement in the war by the US as seen by the Russian (well I would like to see if the Russian were going to send trainers to the drug lord in Mexico how the Americans would take it).

Meanwhile there are two massive exercise from Russia and its allies and from the US and some allies, similar to what happened to the war in Georgia.

The situation can rapidly escalate out of control, even by error.

An escalation would immediately see US Air Force assets attacking Russian forces and Russian using tactical air to air/air to land  missile (not nuclear) to retaliate. And maybe a massive Russian cyber attack.

The scope of the US would be to inflict so much immediate damage to spark a Government change in Russia.

The scope of Russia would be to provoke enough American losses (but not too many) to provoke an electorate backlash ….why American should die for Mariupol (Ukrainian city near Crimea).

This probably will not happen…..but this new Cold War is becoming more chilling by the day….and the population at large does not understand…a bit too similar to the start of the World War 1 (everybody thought that the killing of the heir to Austro Hungarian empire would have provoked a 10 days invasion of Serbia) and the also the Second (Hitler thought that UK was bluffing in defending Poland…as it happened with Austria) or even Vietnam (the US started to send ….guess what …military adviser to train the Vietnamese Army).

I am NOT saying that this will happen…but a lot of things can go wrong very fast from here.

USA and inflation

Posted: May 19, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

That is one thing you just do not hear about.

Well they cannot make you hear this uncomfortable truth as all the paradigms of growth via low interest would automatically fail if there was inflation.

But inflation is there.

Thomson-Reuters /University of Michigan consume confidence dropped from a 9 month high in May from 84.4 to 81.8 , as American are shaken by rising grocery and fuel bills at record high.

US Bureau of Labor statistics (yoy)

Price of shrimp +61%

Price of bacon +13.1%

Price of pork meat (end of 2014 projection) +20%

Ground chuck beef +5.9%

Chicken breast +12.4%

This is a time bomb.

While the super wealthy Americans (and in the world in general, BBC stated on Sunday that UK Billionaires last year improved their fortune by a massive +15%) – the average John Doe is struggling to have a plate of meat on his table. 


You do not know when it will hit the main media…but soon or later (now to 3 years), it will. And it will not be just the financial market to have an issue.



Ukraine: de escalation is over

Posted: April 23, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: , ,

The peace deal agreed in Geneve last week is definitely over after the shooting of three Pro Russian rebels and the torture and kill of two Ukrainian.

This was meant to happen firstly as Russian were treated like children in the US Press Conference and, secondly, not even the Russian or Ukrainian can control some sides of what they have created.

On the Russian side in the meanwhile, some Russian troops have been seen in Eastern Ukraine. Putin is seriusly pissed off and probably concocting something (Iran, financial markets, agreements with China).

The US deployed the second warship in the Black Sea, deployed some fighter jets in the Baltics and Poland and some troops on the ground in Poland and Romania. And in Syria “casually” are showing up reports of use of gas by Assad (being Assad a staunch Russian Ally). Plus naturally some other sanctions in preparation such as the exclusion of Russian companies from the Bond market.

International chess game.

In the news they talk to you of Russia, Ukraine they will talk to you of Russia taking over Crimea and the West that does only sanctions.

In reality the war has already started as a financial war.

The US is trying to economically crippling Russia with a triple hit (depreciation of currency, stock market crash, oil shorting – plus the freezing of assets).

They are also trying to assess how much Treasury Bond the Russian have has they will retaliate. A note I saw, says that the Russian do not have enough T bonds to hurt the US. But you can never trust Putin….also investigating why Belgium is the third largest T Bond holder with USD 310 Billion at the end of January (Belgium has a GDP of just $100Bn).

Let’s see how the Russian will retaliate…cutting the gas is one idea (but it is bad also for them)…we will see

I am not saying that the US have them or the Russian have them. I just say that is illogical and someone parked there the amount of money (one third of the entire US Treasury bond market and, if true, Belgium in two months would have bought the equivalent of its entire GDP in Treasury Bonds*).

*Font Zerohedge

At first look there is nothing to signal…alignment with the upper crescent tunnel.

But the Bollinger movement spooked me – so I started digging.

In the next 5 days there is the end of the triangular pattern that I shown on an earlier on the NYSE.

At this point the institutional investors (that have been watching by the sidelines the market the last 10 days) will have to re align their portfolio starting a rally or bring the market down selling.

One of the “what if” day is Thursday (NYC time).

Tomorrow there is the official confirmation of the next Fed Chairman Yellen and in her speech the market will try to gauge her intention about QE (the market now thinks March 2014) or a potential move from Tea Party Senator Paul to delay her nomination (as he wants a vote on auditing the Fed balance in exchange).

Plus there is an issue on the 10 and 30 years T Bond which are pushing yields (2.73% and 3.83% respectively with long term resistance at 3.4/3.5% and 4.1% / 4.2%). A breach of these long term resistances would make all the major research houses decrease the growth projection for the US.

I still think there is a while to go before we are in real danger on the yield sise (January/March) and I am still positive as a bias

The first round of negotiation between the US and Iran have ended with a “no deal” – but everyone is much more positive than ever, A solution is in sight.

This is another leg of the revolutions are happening around the world that will shape the world as we know it in the next decade, but most too narrow focus to see.

A re-alignment between Iran and the USA have consequences directly in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and indirect consequences on Israel, Saudi Arabia (and satellites) and Turkey. Saudi Arabia is already said to be in talks to acquire nuclear warheads from Pakistan, if Tehran is allowed to go nuclear.

It is almost funny to see how Iran and US have much more in common than US and the Saudis.

Other geo political revolutions are the neo-isolationism of the US (practically letting mini regional superpower battle out for regional supremacy) while still maintaining a technological advantage in case of all-out war, the resurgence of Japan (also in military terms) and Russia and the European decadence.

Ok …it is not called KGB anymore….it is FSB.

First the Syrian operation crippled the image of the US  in the Russian ex Soviet Republic and in part of the Middle East.

Now some leaks are seeding distrust between the European allies (Germany, France, Spain…also with Brasil) and the US.

And the escaped contractor Snowden was granted asylum by Russia.

This is a KGB (ops sorry FSB) master operation. It almost feels “cold war”. In reality Russia is very far from what it was, but sometimes perception works even better than reality.

And the US needs really to step up its collective brain

It feels a bit like the movie “Inception”.

The first bluff was Obama’s Red Line on gas attack (by the way everyone forgot that Saddam, with Reagan approval, gassed 1,000s of Kurds and Iranians in the ’80s…but that was a cold war).

The second bluff is Putin saying that the UN could secure 50 sites with over a 1000 tons of gas in the midst of a civil war.

The third bluff is Assad agreeing in the destruction of gas which he knows nobody can do thoroughly (well one point….nobody knows 100% where all the stockpiles are)  

The fourth bluff is the discussion in the UN that they cannot even agree on the consequences of Syria not respecting the destruction of gas (imagine when they will have to discuss which troop to send to do the job, who pays the bill etc)

The fifth bluff is the market, now it will look like heading into a new rally (it was hard to see a crash from 1,630 – some technical would not have permitted it) going towards the top SPX 1,710.

In case anyone forgot the 18th September there is still the Fed meeting on tapering.

No one can predict the market…I just say that I feel like being on the Titanic. You could avoid all icebergs…or not.

PS and the poor Syrians?….well they keep on dying. It has never been about them. It is US and Russia litigiousness (Russia is still upset about Serbia/Kosovo and Ukraine), it is between Saudi and Iranian Middle Eastern supremacy and – well you should have guessed it – a project of an oil pipeline Iran/Iraq/Syria.

As I say in this blog often…shadows of grey