Posts Tagged ‘US’

President Trump vs Biden

Posted: June 25, 2020 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

Font – Washington Times

Black Lives Matters damaged seriously President Trump campaign who is now seriously lagging Biden. While this is a serious blow – he was similarly lagging Clinton in July 2016.

CNN and the media are in general are pushing this lead as the end of President chance of being reelected.

I call it wishful thinking.

My call is that we need to see the state of the US economy in September to understand, but we should see if President Trump starts to panic and do something that compromise his chances like restarting a trade war.

The big plus for President Trump is that Biden wants to roll back part of the corporate tax. At the end most voters vote with their wallets and protesters usually do not vote.

The data point and the Fed stimulus point at a good market for September.

Also we should have a vaccine by Moderna in September (currently in Stage 3) . A vaccine release would be a huge boost.

Statistically the market has a good history of returns when the exiting president is Republican. Contrary to the common perception a Democrat President statistically is overall better for the market.

Not a conspiracy theory – but a reality Mr Moncef Slaoui has been nominated for Operation Warp Speed in developing the vaccine. Mr. Moncef Slaoui resigned from the bard of Moderna last week. Coincidences.

So the President battle is still wide open and still has President Trump in advantage – contrary to the media.

Russia – US: financial war

Posted: June 10, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

While it seems that Ukraine is going towards a pacific solution (well, so says the media…the reality is a bit different…but the censorship is doing a great job – currently the Ukraine army is bombing the  town of Slavyansk with civil casualties, including children ), the new cold war is proceeding building up ( during the weekend 3 B52 and 2 B2 Stealth Bomber – all with nuclear capacity- have been moved to the UK).

The financial war is already started. The US is targeting every Russian asset via a Special Division of the US Treasury and the Strategic Study Institute (SSI) of the US Army and creating special issues (Eg denying insurance to cargo ships, economic sanctions, limits on VISA/MAstercard)

Russia is pushing ahead with the de-dollarisation of its economy. A Russian Bank, VTB, has already signed an agreement with the Bank of China to pay each otehr in Yuan and Roubles, Gazprom signalled its intention to switch 9 out of 10 transaction to alternative currencies (Yuan, Rouble, Euro). There are talks about settling the dealing with Japan in Yen and HSBC, Deutsche Bank signalled numerous request from large Russian Corporation to set up accounts in Asian currency, mostly Yuan.

If you really follow what happens in Ukraine, it seems logical that the US wants to restart the Cold War.

All the condition imposed in Ukraine are simply non viable and, apart the talks, they are really stoking Russia. They know it and they are not stupid.

There are two solutions to the why?

– Al Qaeda is not any more the scary monster of the 2001/2010. Yes it still exist and can hit…but it is not a coherent enemy that instils fear. So the Government needs another enemy to keep the population in check and pass all the control of freedom they want. And what is better than the old Russian Bear to scare everyone?

-The US is forecasting that the resurgence of Russia and China will happen at the same time say around 2025. Dealing with two enemies of that size at the same moment is incredibly hard (as they know from the 1950) – so they decide to “bring forward” as enemy to deal with it now…and have to deal with China later by its own.

Whatever the idea behind (probably it is a mix of the two)…Russia will be pushed to invade East Ukraine. The point of view of the US is that it will make Russia look bad and scary, but also financially stretched and weaker (delaying its global rise).

If I see this…logically Putin will know…interesting what will do (bring forward the alliance with China – which is already doing). I would not underestimate Putin even if you pay me.

The situation in Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating. Russia is not intervening yet. It is trying to reach the 25 May when  the elections will be held.

But some events could force their hand.

The Ukrainian military suddenly improved due to

A large number of terrorist Takfiri fighters in Syria, who bear Saudi and Chechnian nationalities and receive financial and military backup from the Saudi intelligence agency, have been transferred to the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, on several planes to help the Ukrainian army in its fight against the pro-Russian population,” an Arab security official told FNA on Sunday on the condition of anonymity due to the secrecy of the issue. Font ABNA (Saudi newspaper). Putin already warned Saudi that they may have a lot of soft power, but Russia has a lot of hard power (his words…as usual very clear. Saudis are on the hit list as Putin think (with reason) that a US-Saudi conspiracy led to the fall of the USSR

Dozens of specialist from FBI and CIA are now advising the Ukraine Government – Font Build (German magazine) and AFP.

Definitely someone better stop this mess….I start to be scared.

 

The US and EU made a raft of new sanctions that look hard, but they are designed to be harmless -but look good.

Some interests that would have really crippled Russia have been avoided, deliberately.

Why?

Well the Americans are very far from stupid.

– They need the Russian routes to withdraw from Afghanistan (they could use Pakistan, but it is more expensive and dangerous.

-They do not want to push to the brink a Government that has a clear and devastating military power. They actually know that the real reason of the famous Pearl Harbour attack where the crippling oil sanctions on Japan in 1941. And Japan did not have nukes and the state of the art weaponry of Russia.

-There are a lot of Western companies in Russia (Eg ExxonMobil for one) that have substantial assets in Russia that could be seized in a moment. Apart the issue of the single companies…there are enough assets to send the world directly in the Global Financial Crisis number 2. Russia at the point could cut off also the gas supply to Europe.

– Some countries that have issues with the US (China, India, Iran, Brasil to name a few) are carefully monitoring what is happening and preparing for a Pact of Warsaw number 2.

So they decide to bark at the Bear, without biting it. As I say do not wake up the Bear that sleeps.

I was waiting for PM Putin to do something real against US.

As usual he chose the currency. A lot of the US power is based on the fact that the US Dollar is the de facto reserve currency of the world. A hit o  the US Dollar reserve status would have consequences barely imaginable.

It would be a world order change.

On April 10, Bloomberg announced that Gazprom (the mega Russian oil conglomerate, practically “owned” by Putin) is considering a Yuan issuance of Bond.

Also on April 4, Pravda has announced that the Government is considering accepting payments for its gas supplies only in Rubles. Interesting proposal hard to enact as Reserve Banks would need to create reserves and contracts are pretty long. It could be easier for them to switch to Euro, or to Yuan, if China agrees.

In May 2014, the President of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will sign a deal that will create a new currency (the Altyn) by 2025.

Logically the Americans do not stand and watch threatening to offer gas to Europe. But the threat is mainly in words as to organize the infrastructure and technological differences could be accomplished in a few years.

Per converse Gazprom is closer to sign a deal for a gas pipeline extension to China.

Meanwhile is the Eastern Ukraine pro Russian rebels (most likely backed by  Spetznaz, Russian Special Forces) is confronted Ukrainian Military (backed by Greystone Inc US mercenaries (the infamous Blackwater of Afghan and Iraq scandals).

Definitely a more subtle version of the cold war

Markets: US Fed to the rescue

Posted: April 10, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

As usual, as soon as the markets seemed to fall off a cliff the US Federal Reserve came to the rescue pumping liquidity and talking dovish on interest rate (not on tapering the taper).

So nothing changed. We still have 2 out 3 indicator in red alert and the FED intervention results gets weaker by the day. As suggested probably it will go on until end of April (next week is Easter).

So nothing really new. The ominous signs are still there.

Ukraine is one of the first emerging market to go in flame. As often I told you the economic crisis can easily become a revolution.

How did it start.

The start actually is quite a few year ago when Russia, taking advantage of the US being bogged down in the Middle East, re-conquered (politically this time) the ex USSR countries that had been swayed towards the West in the 1990s.

The came the US  disengagement from the Middle East and the famous President Obama speech Pacific Pivot Strategy. What President Obama did not clearly tell is that more than a Pacific Pivot…in reality the US was doing an Old Enemies Pivot, Russia and China.

Ukraine,  substantially,  is a punishment to Russia for the Syria affront when Putin shamed Obama into not following up on its threat (by the way, as only 4% of the nerve gas has been destroyed till now, there is quite a substantial US deployment in Jordan). Now Russia 1 US 1. This  has been shown to us from an intercepted call published by a German newspaper (guess what…not only the US spy!)

The issue is that the demonstrations are going beyond the original intent, as the economic condition are ripe for a proper revolution. They are actually getting more than they bargained for. Tonight there are news of police switching side to to the protesters.

This is actually the third phase of the Global Financial Crisis. First Share Markets. then economic crisis and last one, revolution in the weakest country. I was waiting for Greece…got it wrong. As of now we have Ukraine and Thailand on the brink.

China long game

Posted: February 13, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: , ,

China is keeping on stirring up the situation with raising tension with Japan, then the Philippines , then Vietnam and India and so on.

One trait of these flair ups is that every time the US starts to get interested….they move to another area.

It looks like the Chinese political class is more interested in an old political strategy than real war: when there are issue at home, create an enemy to distract the masses.

This has been done over and over, the latest and biggest was the USSR strategy.

It is a smart strategy (as long as it does not create an actual war) – but it shows the amount of strain induced by the economic change from export economy to consumer driven economy there is for real in China.

A smarter strategy for China would be to be silent until the army is ready and then pounce on the neighbourhood country when ready. They know it as they have one of the smartest political class, but evidently they worry much more about the level of discontent within the Chinese people than anything else.

A word about the military situation.

The super advanced weapons that supposedly China has, in reality are 80% in development or just being tested. For example,  the aircraft carrier will start to be operative in 2017/20 (first against so many of the US – and its an USSR old design – Kiev Aircraft Carrier)) and the stealth aircraft (again a first generation, while the American are studying the 4th generation unmmaned) again will be deployed in 2020.

And a naval battle requires a level of Air-Sea coordination that currently only the US, and maybe Japan and UK can achieve.

The real danger will come around 2020 when China will match is verbal aggressiveness with military power.

Why you hear about it so much is actually again a old USSR American strategy – they boast so much the enemies capability so they can get funds for new weapon systems.

Current developments (that I know of) under the “Chinese attack scenario” are hypersonic missiles and strategic bombers (hypersonic means that they practically fly in low orbit until they re enter the atmosphere – practically a 2 hours flight to go anywhere and nearly impossible to intercept), a stealth warship and , the funkiest, a sound wave pulse that disable the enemy electronics.

So practically back to the Cold War scenario as previously mentioned.

 

It looks like the classic November consolidation has been done and the market is prepping up for a Xmas rally.

The last hurdle will be the Fed Meeting 18-19 December (any indication of tapering). But starting tapering in the midst of the holiday season with the recent speeches of Yellen seems unlikely.

This week is Thanksgiving week – typically with light volumes (Thanksgiving is Thursday) and Black Friday will show us the mood of the retail spender in the US.

Also one of the last geopolitical hurdles is dissipating (deal with Iran).