Posts Tagged ‘Ukraine’

Well when all the newspapers say that now there is almost a working truce in Ukraine….what is happening is actually is the reverse.

There has been the death of Nemtsov. Some accused the FSB (ex KGB) and some accused the CIA to create a pretext (not the first time address up operation. And this follow a strange accident that killed the pro Russia French CEO of Total in Moscow by few months (supposedly a drunk person went on Moscow airfield colliding with the private jet…it sounds very Bourne Ultimatum to me).

Anyway my theory on that one (pure speculation) is a hit by Russian nationalist (not President Putin) on someone seen Pro Ukrainian.

But what this post is about is that both the US and the UK are sending boots on the ground (173 Airborne Brigade) in Ukraine to train the Ukrainian Army.

This is a clear act of aggression and direct involvement in the war by the US as seen by the Russian (well I would like to see if the Russian were going to send trainers to the drug lord in Mexico how the Americans would take it).

Meanwhile there are two massive exercise from Russia and its allies and from the US and some allies, similar to what happened to the war in Georgia.

The situation can rapidly escalate out of control, even by error.

An escalation would immediately see US Air Force assets attacking Russian forces and Russian using tactical air to air/air to land  missile (not nuclear) to retaliate. And maybe a massive Russian cyber attack.

The scope of the US would be to inflict so much immediate damage to spark a Government change in Russia.

The scope of Russia would be to provoke enough American losses (but not too many) to provoke an electorate backlash ….why American should die for Mariupol (Ukrainian city near Crimea).

This probably will not happen…..but this new Cold War is becoming more chilling by the day….and the population at large does not understand…a bit too similar to the start of the World War 1 (everybody thought that the killing of the heir to Austro Hungarian empire would have provoked a 10 days invasion of Serbia) and the also the Second (Hitler thought that UK was bluffing in defending Poland…as it happened with Austria) or even Vietnam (the US started to send ….guess what …military adviser to train the Vietnamese Army).

I am NOT saying that this will happen…but a lot of things can go wrong very fast from here.

Well, anyone wishes to know. Just remind yourself that in any confrontation with the West (Georgia, Syria, Ukraine), he won.

He did not react to the sanction on a “gentlemen” agreement as the US and Europe kindly (eheh) avoided to hit the correct target.

In Ukraine he will probably wait the 25 May election or an attack to the self declared independent Eastern Ukraine. He has a red lines: apparently there are over 400 Greystone mercenaries in Ukraine (font German magazine Bild -apparently all this interesting information against the US come from someone in German with interests more aligned with Putin than Obama – someone in energy?) and a number of CIA and FBI advisors. The Greystone mercenaries are currently dressed in Special Police uniform Sokol (logically Greystones denies). But the reality is the hits against Ukraine military are predominantly against the Sokol police.

He is trying not to invade Ukraine as he just need to destabilise it and now wander towards Europe. He knows that with economic pressure in a few year -after all the Western fanfare fades – it will economically succumb to Russia anyway.

But Ukraine, for Putin, is an integral part of Russia. Approximately 1 million Russian died there defeating the German Nazi.

On a greater scheme Putin is always seeing as US as the great enemy responsible for the fall of the USSR (with the Saudis) and affront of Serbia (Russia could not protect Serbia, considered like a sibling, during the Balcanic wars).

He has long understood that the centre of the US power is the fact that the US Dollar is the world reserve currency. He is trying to ally with China, Iran and possibly India to create an alternate currency bloc.

Russian Deputy Finance Minister Moiseev mentioned a potential “currency switch executive order” in which the Kremlin could order all the payments (including 1/3 of all European gas supply) to be made in Roubles not US Dollars.

Such a shift would have immense consequences.

Plus there is the fact of who is the owner of almost 1/3 of all US Treasury bought via Euroclear and deposited in Belgium. As they represent 300% of Belgium GDP it is not Belgium. If it is Russia ..what it is doing (it is so much I do not think so), the Chinese I do not know why they would do it. If it is the Fed – that would be a deception as it would mean that the tapering never happened (they just shifted asset) and would be a Watergate moment if exposed.

As usual do not underestimate Rodina (Mother Russia, for the Russian Speakers).

That is why, after having achieved our targets, we use this rally to proceed with caution. 

With Russia, China and the US in a delicate situation, it is better to be careful – the timing could be between now and 3 years (the first signs of the Global Financial Crisis started in August 2006)

If you really follow what happens in Ukraine, it seems logical that the US wants to restart the Cold War.

All the condition imposed in Ukraine are simply non viable and, apart the talks, they are really stoking Russia. They know it and they are not stupid.

There are two solutions to the why?

– Al Qaeda is not any more the scary monster of the 2001/2010. Yes it still exist and can hit…but it is not a coherent enemy that instils fear. So the Government needs another enemy to keep the population in check and pass all the control of freedom they want. And what is better than the old Russian Bear to scare everyone?

-The US is forecasting that the resurgence of Russia and China will happen at the same time say around 2025. Dealing with two enemies of that size at the same moment is incredibly hard (as they know from the 1950) – so they decide to “bring forward” as enemy to deal with it now…and have to deal with China later by its own.

Whatever the idea behind (probably it is a mix of the two)…Russia will be pushed to invade East Ukraine. The point of view of the US is that it will make Russia look bad and scary, but also financially stretched and weaker (delaying its global rise).

If I see this…logically Putin will know…interesting what will do (bring forward the alliance with China – which is already doing). I would not underestimate Putin even if you pay me.

The situation in Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating. Russia is not intervening yet. It is trying to reach the 25 May when  the elections will be held.

But some events could force their hand.

The Ukrainian military suddenly improved due to

A large number of terrorist Takfiri fighters in Syria, who bear Saudi and Chechnian nationalities and receive financial and military backup from the Saudi intelligence agency, have been transferred to the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, on several planes to help the Ukrainian army in its fight against the pro-Russian population,” an Arab security official told FNA on Sunday on the condition of anonymity due to the secrecy of the issue. Font ABNA (Saudi newspaper). Putin already warned Saudi that they may have a lot of soft power, but Russia has a lot of hard power (his words…as usual very clear. Saudis are on the hit list as Putin think (with reason) that a US-Saudi conspiracy led to the fall of the USSR

Dozens of specialist from FBI and CIA are now advising the Ukraine Government – Font Build (German magazine) and AFP.

Definitely someone better stop this mess….I start to be scared.

 

Russia: don’t corner a Bear!

Posted: April 28, 2014 in Uncategorized
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I know all the Western media propaganda depicts Russia as the evil aggressor (in a situation in which an anyway regularly elected government (for how much despicable) has been dethroned by a US sponsored revolution), but it would be better to let the Bear sleep than stoking the fires as the US continuously are doing.

Some explanation.

Putin has been by far the cleverest, if evil, politician around (excluding the Chinese)

Putin is stoking the fire or Russian nationalist (there are talks of a show trial of Gorbachev as the responsible of the USSR – logically part of a US conspiracy)

If real sanctions will be imposed Russia could retaliate cutting the gas (or rising the gas price) for Europe devastating the European economy that is looking at some frail hints of recovery.

Russia could easily take over Eastern Ukraine and, military, there is nothing that anyone can do.

If really cornered Russia could launch a world war 3 style cyber attack on the US. Russia has some of the best cyber attack specialisation. Do not under estimate the event. All your workplace, traffic management, utilities can be hit with a denial of service attack. I do not think that it will eventuate as it would be a World War 3 event.

I strictly do not believe in it, but it is too much of a funny coincidence not to write about …Nostradamus he predicted that a great war will start from the Black Sea in 2013/2015. Coincidence.

PS out of curiosity I read Nostradamus bits myself, once upon a time during a train strike. It is so convoluted that you can make him say whatever you want. But one of the last book was written in 2000…too far in the past for someone to make up stories about the Black Sea. You can always say that if you make enough stories some will be right (which is true). Anyway too strange not to write about it.

Ukraine: de escalation is over

Posted: April 23, 2014 in Uncategorized
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The peace deal agreed in Geneve last week is definitely over after the shooting of three Pro Russian rebels and the torture and kill of two Ukrainian.

This was meant to happen firstly as Russian were treated like children in the US Press Conference and, secondly, not even the Russian or Ukrainian can control some sides of what they have created.

On the Russian side in the meanwhile, some Russian troops have been seen in Eastern Ukraine. Putin is seriusly pissed off and probably concocting something (Iran, financial markets, agreements with China).

The US deployed the second warship in the Black Sea, deployed some fighter jets in the Baltics and Poland and some troops on the ground in Poland and Romania. And in Syria “casually” are showing up reports of use of gas by Assad (being Assad a staunch Russian Ally). Plus naturally some other sanctions in preparation such as the exclusion of Russian companies from the Bond market.

International chess game.

Ukraine: a Russian Perspective

Posted: April 15, 2014 in Uncategorized
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We are all hearing the Western Media of the evil Russia…let’s see what is the other side of the coin.

Funny enough it looks like we (Eg Western countries) are the aggressor. It is actually clearly a payback from the Syrian US debacle.

The deposed PM Yanukovic (pro Russian) was democratically elected in 2010 with 48% of the votes.

It was ousted in a pro UE revolution, clearly sponsored by the US (there is also an intercepted communication between the the Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and US Ambassador to Ukraine Pyatt that confirm that.

Probably they did not think of this kind of Russian answer, but Putin, since he came in charge, has showed more and more that he can outsmart the Western leader with real effectiveness (the “turning” of the Orange Revolutions, Georgia, Syria) from a position of relative weakness (well if the 007 movies were real, if you know history, 007 would be Russian)

Crimea has been for centuries the Russian military access to the Mediterranean and one of the most looked for Russian beach place to be (a bit like Brighton for London). It has over 60% of the population as ethnic Russian.

It is one of the main gas pipeline artery to the West (which account for 60% of Russian revenue).

It is not something that Putin (or, to tell you the truth no one in his situation) can let go. It is much more a RED LINE that a gas attack red line in Syria. It is more like if someone would take over Alaska (until 1950s Ukraine was an USSR region).

So it is a RED LINE and so Crimea was taken over.

Now the scope of Russia is to create enough tension in East Ukraine to undermine the 7 May elections.  The best outcome for Russia is a federalisation of Ukraine with the eastern part going under the Russian umbrella – Putin knows that, under the harsh International Monetary Fund bail out condition (and Russian pressure) soon or later also West Ukraine  will fold.

But now there is the ultimatum against the pro-Russian rebel. Ukraine let expire yesterday’s ultimatum without consequences. They know that if they attack, the Russian army will attack.

Russia would prefer not to attack as time and economic sanction will sway the battle on their side anyway. But if push come to shove, they will conquer East Ukraine as limited operation (Putin knows that the Red Army is not yet at USSR levels – so any major operation (say to Moldova) is too costly.

Now the ball is in the Ukrainian side!

Meanwhile he will keep on seeding insecurity in all the ex USSR countries.

So Putin is simply responding to the Western encirclement with the only message that the US listen. 

Stockmarket wise, a funny graph…sanction what hit who? Well done Tovarish Putin!

 

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My 3 Alert are all in RED. 

SP 500 is oversold as Bollinger but RSI is 38 – Volatility Index is 16.85 (above 16.36 is danger zone but negative is 17.09 crisis is above 18.67 – crisis full on above 19.83 panic at 21.91). Under 15.89 it would be a scale back of the alert. Simple Moving Average 50, 75, 100 have been easily destroyed. Around 1,810/1,790 there is the last support before an attack to the SMA 200 1,760.

Around 1,740 serious issues as it would break the back of rally started in Q4 2011 – If it does with force, the target would be 1,600

What it can do is a further day down (US -Monday) a small rebound and then keep on going down. But a blackswan effect could be even worsen teh situation.

In Ukraine the situation worsened a lot…all Eastern Ukraine is in a situation similar to Crimea when it was  taken over by Russian (same pattern) – but Ukrainian PM has ordered a full retaliation this time. First bloodsheds.. Various unconfirmed sources say that the Ukrainians are backed by contractors from Greystone INC (the infamous Blackwater mercenaries in Iraq). Greystones firmly denied it (it could be a Russian plant – they are specialist in disinformation). Not looking good. American sources do not think Russia is going for a conflict (got it wrong in Georgia), but for a destabilization in light of Ukraine elections in May. The Ukrainian MP has issued an ultimatum for 6am GMT (1pm Australian Eastern Coast) for the pro Russian rebel to surrender. Will  Moscow stand and watch?

 

If Greystone Inc is in Russia it is really bas as  for Russia it  is an illegal US Army and Ukraine with an illegal US Army in it is a clear Russian Red Line (font: Pravda). There is no reliable confirmation that Greystone is in Ukraine.

Friday the FED pumped a lot of money in, but was defeated, but they will try again.

 

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I was waiting for PM Putin to do something real against US.

As usual he chose the currency. A lot of the US power is based on the fact that the US Dollar is the de facto reserve currency of the world. A hit o  the US Dollar reserve status would have consequences barely imaginable.

It would be a world order change.

On April 10, Bloomberg announced that Gazprom (the mega Russian oil conglomerate, practically “owned” by Putin) is considering a Yuan issuance of Bond.

Also on April 4, Pravda has announced that the Government is considering accepting payments for its gas supplies only in Rubles. Interesting proposal hard to enact as Reserve Banks would need to create reserves and contracts are pretty long. It could be easier for them to switch to Euro, or to Yuan, if China agrees.

In May 2014, the President of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will sign a deal that will create a new currency (the Altyn) by 2025.

Logically the Americans do not stand and watch threatening to offer gas to Europe. But the threat is mainly in words as to organize the infrastructure and technological differences could be accomplished in a few years.

Per converse Gazprom is closer to sign a deal for a gas pipeline extension to China.

Meanwhile is the Eastern Ukraine pro Russian rebels (most likely backed by  Spetznaz, Russian Special Forces) is confronted Ukrainian Military (backed by Greystone Inc US mercenaries (the infamous Blackwater of Afghan and Iraq scandals).

Definitely a more subtle version of the cold war

Why Ukraine?

Posted: April 7, 2014 in Uncategorized
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What is all the fuss with Ukraine and Georgia few years ago?

As usual it is energy (sorry to be boring, always energy). Looking of the map attach it is clear that the Caspian Sea and Black Sea are the principal node of gas pipelines (also the only non under Russian control European gas pipeline) that, beyond Russia include Europe, Iran, Turkey Pakistan, China and India. So we can pretty much rest assure we will have more problems in that area. Too many strategicinterests clashing

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