Posts Tagged ‘Syria’

Syria, a turning point

Posted: May 9, 2014 in Uncategorized
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With all the issues around the world, Syria has been forgotten.

Assad and his allies have turned the tide (with the help of Russians (part of the US/Ukraine dispute)  and Iranians plus rebel infighting) and, unless the US decide to give the rebels some serious weaponry, the Free Syrian Army will be defeated as a Assad defeating danger (Syria will still in a kind of Balkanization situation as Assad still does not have the capacity of multiple attack due to logistic issues)

This could be a massive issue for Turkey and Saudi Arabia (and the West in general) as thousands of combat trained and radicalised fighters will return home (Turkey, Saudi and UK). Dangerous.

Naturally Israel is watching with interest and literally taking out the most dangerous (to Israel) bits of it. Recently looks like they killed a Syrian general to close to Hezbollah and some Russian missiles headed in the wrong direction (Hezbollah). Business as usual.

Turkey and Israel

Posted: April 8, 2014 in Uncategorized
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After years of enmities after the flotilla Palestinian aid disaster relationship between the two countries are starting to warm up again for a series of interests.

– They are studying how to co develop a gas basin situated in sea between Israel and Turkey (Lebanon and Syria) and also a gas pipeline

– Turkey is one of the main actors involved against Syria (allied with the Hezbollah) and after trying to involve more the US (there are unconfirmed report that the famous gas attack was in reality a false flag attack organized or by Turkey or Saudi secret services), is trying to create escalation motifs (recently they shot down a Syrian warplane and there has been at least one artillery exchange between Syria and Turkey. Moreover the Turkish PM Erogodan has plenty of issues that needs distraction and, in case of Assad’s Syria win…all the freedom fighters will return to Turkey – also the one linked to Al Qaeda.

-Israel never forgot the technically lost war against Hezbollah (first ever Israeli Defence Force (IDF)defeat) and currently Hezbollah are accumulating vast stockpiles of missiles against Israel

-The US is clearly not interested on intervening

-The IDF is developing a very focused suite of new weapons aimed at Hezbollah with the last war lessons (specifically smart long range artillery munitions

I wonder if Turkey and Israel are considering to solve this issue, once and for all. Definitely Assad and Hezbollah cannot fight against Israel and Turkey. Yes a weird combination…but when real politik calls (well probably it would not be explicitly  advertised in the media as a joint operation…Jew/Sunni against Shia)

 

The news is the US, UN, France and Germany is sending troops to pacify DRC.

Again it is a bunch a African rebels against the all powerful  Syrian Army….that is why.

Wrong again!

DRC have some of the largest reserves of Cobalt (alloys for jet and gas turbine), tantalum (jet engines, nuclear bombs and missiles) , tungsten (electronics, missiles and ammunition).

Old story, sadly boring! realpolitik at its worst for you!

By the way, also North Korea, since it found the largest reserves of rare earth (weapons, electronics) after China  , is having close talk with South Korea (and US) and soon I bet will see a realignment towards the West (the executed famous uncle of the North Korea President was China best ally).

PS that is also why China is so interested in Africa. No space for good men

And Syrian keeps on dying

Posted: February 4, 2014 in Uncategorized
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As I told you in a post before the Swiss peace talk became quickly a farce, but the powers had to show that they were doing something.

The famous deal about the gas weapon is also a farce (4% of the supposed stockpile has been destroyed…missing completely the deadline).

The main battle is now between the Pro Western Syrian versus the pro Al -Qaeda militants (and expanding in Iraq) that seized the main oil fields in Syria and are allying themselves with Assad.

Nobody has a real interest in ending the war that more and more is a Saudi vs Iranian battleground, with Iraq and Lebanon as collateral damage.

And the most efficient  weapon dispersion control  is done by Israel that keeps on plucking out of the field the most dangerous weapon system.

Almost a definition of Middle Eastern Hell. Pity Syria was such a beautiful and multi cultured country.

No relief for Syria

Posted: January 22, 2014 in Uncategorized
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Syria descended in a war everybody against everybody and, unfortunately, there is no end in sight.

The Geneve peace talk are a mere farce, the disinterested big powers need to show that they are doing something.

The reality is that even looking at history Syria has been Syria for approximately 250 years. The rest has been different tribes fighting each other backed by bigger powers in the region.

Iran is a “war playground” for Iran and Saudi – with all other sides pretty much disinterested. Iran now in peace talks with US is not interested in backing off. Saudis again are interested to keep the pressure on Iran.

There are jihads spillages in Iraq and Lebanon – specially the Iraq one will be fought hardly as they interfere with oil upsetting Iran, US and Turkey. But no reprieve for Syria. Real Politik at its worst.

Battle for Syria

Posted: December 3, 2013 in Uncategorized
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The television is kind of bored about Syria, but in reality the war is stepping up.

The 22 January there is the first real peace talk and the various sides want to arrive there in prime position.

Plus there is the temptation from Saudi and Israel (what a strange alliance!) to create problem for the Iran/US talks.

There has been an increase of quantity/quality of weapons smuggled in from Jordan from Saudi Arabia, Qatar (apparently with the help of Israel) and Turkey. Apparently also there are sign of electronic warfare assistance with signature devices typical of the IDF (Israel Defense Force). Also some appearance of Croatian war weapons (usually more lethal of the current stock) is starting to appear.

In Lebanon Hezbollah is reinforcing its position in the civilian villages near Israel and meanwhile Shiva (apparently) attacks against Hezbollah are on the increase.

 

Syria: consequences

Posted: September 17, 2013 in Uncategorized
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The political consequences of President Obama debacle are great and not to be underestimated.

I think there are two issues.

One internal. Now President Obama looks weak and the first sacrifice he had to concede has been Summers (his candidate of choice fro the US FED Chair position). We will see how will go the looming Debt Ceiling battle.

One External. All the countries that depended on the strength of the US to cling to their independence (Poland, Baltic countries, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Georgia) or Russian energy dependent (Turkey, Chzech  Republic) will be swayed towards Russia.

Even Germany, already leaning towards Russia for energy, will be swayed.

The Middle East US allies (Israel and Saudi plus Turkey) are now fully alarmed that President Obama will also give in to Iran (there have been already opening letters between Obama and the new president of Iran).

I almost sound as a warmonger, but really President Obama in a single move set back the US geopolitical power as much as President Carter did in its whole mandate.

Syria: the deadlines are very strict and a missing step could start a limited punitive strike now that President Obama is trying to save face.

The 21 September, President Assad has to deliver the full list of chemical weapons (how to verify it?).

By November President Assad has to grant full access to the inspectors ( by the way the UN estimates require  2000 inspectors and a protective force given by Assad (if you trust him and fully targeted by the rebels, specially the Al Qaeda backed ones)  or provided by the UN of up to 75,000 soldiers (mmmhh…no boots on the ground?) in the midst of a civil war.

And the task has to be completed by mid 2014 (I remind you that there are estimated 1,000 tons of chemical weapon and the best clean up machine cleans approx 25 ton a day 

Summers, one of the candidates as new Fed Chairman for January, has retired from the nomination panel.

This is a positive for the market as he has been seen a disruptive character and enemy of Quantitative Easing.

This also signal the weakness of President Obama after the Syrian failure and put him in an awkward position in the incoming US Debt Ceiling debate.

Syria and Russia scored a great victory against the US.

Syria has hailed as a victory (as it is – tehre is not even an agreement on the consequences in case of infringement) and Secret Service confirms that the special unit 450 has already started dispersing the chemical weapons in secure facilities also in Lebanon and Iraq.

Russia stands to gain a major influence in the ex Soviet States and achieved a psychological win both for Russia as alternative Superpower (which is not) and also distract the attention from the current Russian economic woes.

Unfortunately President Obama in this round reminded me of President Carter….and then came President Reagan. Let’s hope.

Syria – reloaded

Posted: September 11, 2013 in Uncategorized
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Be wary into believing that the Syrian Conflict scenario has waned.

As an investor, not a punter, you should leave these days of profit to day trader as everything can become the biggest trap the market constructed. Or not. But losing your capital is a no go zone – and you do not have to risk everything for a fistful of dollars.

As I see Obama is cornered. But he is an astute President. He knows that the same people that hails is democratic process can literally impeach him as a lame President in a fortnight.

The Russian bluff, up till now worked. In exchange Putin is basking in the former USSR glory. The prize are all the Baltic region state ex USSR. And it depends if Obama thinks the price to pay is too much – also in light of the current alignment of interest between Germany and Russia.

The UN resolution is completely a waste of time: they cannot decide the consequence of a breach by the Assad regime – go figure when they have to decide which country technician and troops have to go in 50 sites in the midst of a civil war with an heavy involvement of Al-Qaeda – a sitting duck scenario.

I always thought that that the most logical side that conduct the gas attack is or a rogue side of the Syrian Army or some Saudi sponsored terrorist (spies?). I am pretty sure of my conclusion – but that conclusions bring an extra layer of uncertainty as we do not know what they will do at this point. The Saudi and affiliates states even offered the US to pay for the bill of teh war (US Army as mercenaries!)

On Assad’s side it seem that the attack on the Syrian Christian town of Maaloula has been let happen by the regime to pressure the US Tea Party against Obama.

And, on top of that, there are some parts of the Assad’s regime that are pretty sure that the US will find an excuse to attack

anyway and they want a preemptive strike on US interest (for example, Syrian Minister for the Reconciliation Haidar))!

The Chinese are pretty much involved in fixing their own economy. They have a slight interest aligned to Syria/Russia/Iran as they sell weapons to them. I bet they would love a US limited strike…it takes the eyes of the world off what happens between them and Japan (yes still going on – as of two days ago two Chinese warship went in Japanese sea) and plus they would battle test some radar they sold to Syria. But they are not pro-active.

This is not about Syria. This about Geopolitical World War 3 after the Global Financial Crisis –  the shaping of the new world.

Pay attention who read this as the end of the US….during the Global Financial Crisis lots of commentators where seeing the GFC as the demise of the US. As you see it now, it was more the demise of the rest of the world in an economical sense. Pearl Harbor should teach us something.

So even if there is a BUY signal in the market the risk are extremely high.

It feels a bit like the movie “Inception”.

The first bluff was Obama’s Red Line on gas attack (by the way everyone forgot that Saddam, with Reagan approval, gassed 1,000s of Kurds and Iranians in the ’80s…but that was a cold war).

The second bluff is Putin saying that the UN could secure 50 sites with over a 1000 tons of gas in the midst of a civil war.

The third bluff is Assad agreeing in the destruction of gas which he knows nobody can do thoroughly (well one point….nobody knows 100% where all the stockpiles are)  

The fourth bluff is the discussion in the UN that they cannot even agree on the consequences of Syria not respecting the destruction of gas (imagine when they will have to discuss which troop to send to do the job, who pays the bill etc)

The fifth bluff is the market, now it will look like heading into a new rally (it was hard to see a crash from 1,630 – some technical would not have permitted it) going towards the top SPX 1,710.

In case anyone forgot the 18th September there is still the Fed meeting on tapering.

No one can predict the market…I just say that I feel like being on the Titanic. You could avoid all icebergs…or not.

PS and the poor Syrians?….well they keep on dying. It has never been about them. It is US and Russia litigiousness (Russia is still upset about Serbia/Kosovo and Ukraine), it is between Saudi and Iranian Middle Eastern supremacy and – well you should have guessed it – a project of an oil pipeline Iran/Iraq/Syria.

As I say in this blog often…shadows of grey