Posts Tagged ‘strategy’

If you really follow what happens in Ukraine, it seems logical that the US wants to restart the Cold War.

All the condition imposed in Ukraine are simply non viable and, apart the talks, they are really stoking Russia. They know it and they are not stupid.

There are two solutions to the why?

– Al Qaeda is not any more the scary monster of the 2001/2010. Yes it still exist and can hit…but it is not a coherent enemy that instils fear. So the Government needs another enemy to keep the population in check and pass all the control of freedom they want. And what is better than the old Russian Bear to scare everyone?

-The US is forecasting that the resurgence of Russia and China will happen at the same time say around 2025. Dealing with two enemies of that size at the same moment is incredibly hard (as they know from the 1950) – so they decide to “bring forward” as enemy to deal with it now…and have to deal with China later by its own.

Whatever the idea behind (probably it is a mix of the two)…Russia will be pushed to invade East Ukraine. The point of view of the US is that it will make Russia look bad and scary, but also financially stretched and weaker (delaying its global rise).

If I see this…logically Putin will know…interesting what will do (bring forward the alliance with China – which is already doing). I would not underestimate Putin even if you pay me.

Obama bluff has been called and there will be war. And there will be death. Americans will be again seen as heroes and ruthless killers at the same time.

Obama last year declared that a gas attack would be a clear red line because he thought Assad was not so stupid to conduct one.

What really happened, nobody will know. has it really been staged by rebels to provoke an attack (smartest move from rebels on a verge of defeat- but they do not seem to have the weapon delivery systems to conduct such an attack – US “Mission Impossible” kind of spies? Difficult – Saudis spies….that could have a chance). Was it Assad? He is not stupid…I do not think so. What I think (and it is of no consequences) is that some rogue part of the Syrian Army (Assad’s bloodthirsty brother or  some Iranian proxy) did it.

As a famous Italian comedian, Pirandello,  says ” It is so (if you think so)”.

The reality is that the Obama’s bluff has been called and war will be. Otherwise Iran and North Korea and anyone else (Russia, China) will know that their own red line do not exist.

Obama clearly does not want “boot on the ground” and has delivery weapon systems to proceed with “stand off attacks” (attacks carried from outside the Syrian airspace). 4 US Navy Destroyers are already in place. Strategic bomber can attack from bases in the UK and Saudi Arabia and the US 5th Fleet with two supercarriers are less than 48 hours away. There is at least one nuclear sub around there.

Thursday the UK Parliament has been urgently recalled.

What Syria (and its allies) can do. Syria has a good air defense system, but very limited offensive capacity (specially considering that they cannot risk to “disturb” also Israel. Iran can be a nasty surprise probably asking Hezbollah to attack/kidnap Westerners in Lebanon. Russia has already played its card with Snowden.

So it should be limited. But war is war. And oil and gold will start running again (well they already started) and the market will have its own (overdue) correction.