Posts Tagged ‘SP 500’

My 3 Alert are all in RED. 

SP 500 is oversold as Bollinger but RSI is 38 – Volatility Index is 16.85 (above 16.36 is danger zone but negative is 17.09 crisis is above 18.67 – crisis full on above 19.83 panic at 21.91). Under 15.89 it would be a scale back of the alert. Simple Moving Average 50, 75, 100 have been easily destroyed. Around 1,810/1,790 there is the last support before an attack to the SMA 200 1,760.

Around 1,740 serious issues as it would break the back of rally started in Q4 2011 – If it does with force, the target would be 1,600

What it can do is a further day down (US -Monday) a small rebound and then keep on going down. But a blackswan effect could be even worsen teh situation.

In Ukraine the situation worsened a lot…all Eastern Ukraine is in a situation similar to Crimea when it was  taken over by Russian (same pattern) – but Ukrainian PM has ordered a full retaliation this time. First bloodsheds.. Various unconfirmed sources say that the Ukrainians are backed by contractors from Greystone INC (the infamous Blackwater mercenaries in Iraq). Greystones firmly denied it (it could be a Russian plant – they are specialist in disinformation). Not looking good. American sources do not think Russia is going for a conflict (got it wrong in Georgia), but for a destabilization in light of Ukraine elections in May. The Ukrainian MP has issued an ultimatum for 6am GMT (1pm Australian Eastern Coast) for the pro Russian rebel to surrender. Will  Moscow stand and watch?

 

If Greystone Inc is in Russia it is really bas as  for Russia it  is an illegal US Army and Ukraine with an illegal US Army in it is a clear Russian Red Line (font: Pravda). There is no reliable confirmation that Greystone is in Ukraine.

Friday the FED pumped a lot of money in, but was defeated, but they will try again.

 

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Last phase of the rally

Posted: April 3, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

We are fast approaching the last phase of the rally.

– Volumes in US markets are dropping so much that High Frequency Trading is switching to the For Ex market

– Institutional are selling with “Pass the candle” strategy ( Bloomberg Font: in the last 5 days investor sold Equity ETF for USD3.7 Billion  and bought USD1.3 Billion of Bond ETF – Sector wise Financial lost the most assets under maangement

They are doing it with what I call “pass the candle strategy” – Only institutional can do this. They buy a lot (usually options) in Pre Market…so the retail investor flocks to buy the great new rally day and they dump their positions.

So what is in it for us?

The market can drift higher for a while – sometimes  there is here and the a bad day that wipes out 5-6 days of drifting higher.

This could go on until end of April