Posts Tagged ‘Russia’

U.S. Adm. William Gortney, commander of the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) Command, warned Congress in written testimony on Thursday of the threat posed by Russian bombers and missiles.

Russians tested NORAD defence capacities in 2014 more than any year after the fall of the USSR.

This was a clear test and train exercise that, with increase long distance weapon delivery systems, decreases the chance of NORAD of effectively protecting North America from a nuclear attack (this was the essence of  US Adm Gortney speech)

Wow…sounds really Dr. Strangelove in the 1960s….but happened 2 days ago.

Everyone is rediscovering the 1960s strategy. Even Putin disappeared from the scene (cancelled a few events) and everyone is guessing what is really happening.

Both the United States and Russia see each other as unpredictable and ruthless – and Russia knows that – at conventional weapon system level – they are behind.

Nuclear deterrence is back – who would have thought?

Update
Ukraine has just signed pact to acquire military hardware from 11 European countries. Meanwhile Russia hinted to the fact that they have (or they think to place) nuclear weapin in Crimea.

On top of that Nato gen. Breedlove, US Assistant Secretary of State Nuland and CNN (eg 13 March) are orchestrating a media campaign similar to the pre invasion of Iraq).

I hope they saw the Russian memo that say that any attack on Rodina (motherland for the Russian) can be retaliated with nuclear weapons without any further authorisation. And Russia is not Iraq. They have over 1600 wmd.

 

 

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Well when all the newspapers say that now there is almost a working truce in Ukraine….what is happening is actually is the reverse.

There has been the death of Nemtsov. Some accused the FSB (ex KGB) and some accused the CIA to create a pretext (not the first time address up operation. And this follow a strange accident that killed the pro Russia French CEO of Total in Moscow by few months (supposedly a drunk person went on Moscow airfield colliding with the private jet…it sounds very Bourne Ultimatum to me).

Anyway my theory on that one (pure speculation) is a hit by Russian nationalist (not President Putin) on someone seen Pro Ukrainian.

But what this post is about is that both the US and the UK are sending boots on the ground (173 Airborne Brigade) in Ukraine to train the Ukrainian Army.

This is a clear act of aggression and direct involvement in the war by the US as seen by the Russian (well I would like to see if the Russian were going to send trainers to the drug lord in Mexico how the Americans would take it).

Meanwhile there are two massive exercise from Russia and its allies and from the US and some allies, similar to what happened to the war in Georgia.

The situation can rapidly escalate out of control, even by error.

An escalation would immediately see US Air Force assets attacking Russian forces and Russian using tactical air to air/air to land  missile (not nuclear) to retaliate. And maybe a massive Russian cyber attack.

The scope of the US would be to inflict so much immediate damage to spark a Government change in Russia.

The scope of Russia would be to provoke enough American losses (but not too many) to provoke an electorate backlash ….why American should die for Mariupol (Ukrainian city near Crimea).

This probably will not happen…..but this new Cold War is becoming more chilling by the day….and the population at large does not understand…a bit too similar to the start of the World War 1 (everybody thought that the killing of the heir to Austro Hungarian empire would have provoked a 10 days invasion of Serbia) and the also the Second (Hitler thought that UK was bluffing in defending Poland…as it happened with Austria) or even Vietnam (the US started to send ….guess what …military adviser to train the Vietnamese Army).

I am NOT saying that this will happen…but a lot of things can go wrong very fast from here.

Russia – US: financial war

Posted: June 10, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

While it seems that Ukraine is going towards a pacific solution (well, so says the media…the reality is a bit different…but the censorship is doing a great job – currently the Ukraine army is bombing the  town of Slavyansk with civil casualties, including children ), the new cold war is proceeding building up ( during the weekend 3 B52 and 2 B2 Stealth Bomber – all with nuclear capacity- have been moved to the UK).

The financial war is already started. The US is targeting every Russian asset via a Special Division of the US Treasury and the Strategic Study Institute (SSI) of the US Army and creating special issues (Eg denying insurance to cargo ships, economic sanctions, limits on VISA/MAstercard)

Russia is pushing ahead with the de-dollarisation of its economy. A Russian Bank, VTB, has already signed an agreement with the Bank of China to pay each otehr in Yuan and Roubles, Gazprom signalled its intention to switch 9 out of 10 transaction to alternative currencies (Yuan, Rouble, Euro). There are talks about settling the dealing with Japan in Yen and HSBC, Deutsche Bank signalled numerous request from large Russian Corporation to set up accounts in Asian currency, mostly Yuan.

Well, anyone wishes to know. Just remind yourself that in any confrontation with the West (Georgia, Syria, Ukraine), he won.

He did not react to the sanction on a “gentlemen” agreement as the US and Europe kindly (eheh) avoided to hit the correct target.

In Ukraine he will probably wait the 25 May election or an attack to the self declared independent Eastern Ukraine. He has a red lines: apparently there are over 400 Greystone mercenaries in Ukraine (font German magazine Bild -apparently all this interesting information against the US come from someone in German with interests more aligned with Putin than Obama – someone in energy?) and a number of CIA and FBI advisors. The Greystone mercenaries are currently dressed in Special Police uniform Sokol (logically Greystones denies). But the reality is the hits against Ukraine military are predominantly against the Sokol police.

He is trying not to invade Ukraine as he just need to destabilise it and now wander towards Europe. He knows that with economic pressure in a few year -after all the Western fanfare fades – it will economically succumb to Russia anyway.

But Ukraine, for Putin, is an integral part of Russia. Approximately 1 million Russian died there defeating the German Nazi.

On a greater scheme Putin is always seeing as US as the great enemy responsible for the fall of the USSR (with the Saudis) and affront of Serbia (Russia could not protect Serbia, considered like a sibling, during the Balcanic wars).

He has long understood that the centre of the US power is the fact that the US Dollar is the world reserve currency. He is trying to ally with China, Iran and possibly India to create an alternate currency bloc.

Russian Deputy Finance Minister Moiseev mentioned a potential “currency switch executive order” in which the Kremlin could order all the payments (including 1/3 of all European gas supply) to be made in Roubles not US Dollars.

Such a shift would have immense consequences.

Plus there is the fact of who is the owner of almost 1/3 of all US Treasury bought via Euroclear and deposited in Belgium. As they represent 300% of Belgium GDP it is not Belgium. If it is Russia ..what it is doing (it is so much I do not think so), the Chinese I do not know why they would do it. If it is the Fed – that would be a deception as it would mean that the tapering never happened (they just shifted asset) and would be a Watergate moment if exposed.

As usual do not underestimate Rodina (Mother Russia, for the Russian Speakers).

That is why, after having achieved our targets, we use this rally to proceed with caution. 

With Russia, China and the US in a delicate situation, it is better to be careful – the timing could be between now and 3 years (the first signs of the Global Financial Crisis started in August 2006)

If you really follow what happens in Ukraine, it seems logical that the US wants to restart the Cold War.

All the condition imposed in Ukraine are simply non viable and, apart the talks, they are really stoking Russia. They know it and they are not stupid.

There are two solutions to the why?

– Al Qaeda is not any more the scary monster of the 2001/2010. Yes it still exist and can hit…but it is not a coherent enemy that instils fear. So the Government needs another enemy to keep the population in check and pass all the control of freedom they want. And what is better than the old Russian Bear to scare everyone?

-The US is forecasting that the resurgence of Russia and China will happen at the same time say around 2025. Dealing with two enemies of that size at the same moment is incredibly hard (as they know from the 1950) – so they decide to “bring forward” as enemy to deal with it now…and have to deal with China later by its own.

Whatever the idea behind (probably it is a mix of the two)…Russia will be pushed to invade East Ukraine. The point of view of the US is that it will make Russia look bad and scary, but also financially stretched and weaker (delaying its global rise).

If I see this…logically Putin will know…interesting what will do (bring forward the alliance with China – which is already doing). I would not underestimate Putin even if you pay me.

The US and EU made a raft of new sanctions that look hard, but they are designed to be harmless -but look good.

Some interests that would have really crippled Russia have been avoided, deliberately.

Why?

Well the Americans are very far from stupid.

– They need the Russian routes to withdraw from Afghanistan (they could use Pakistan, but it is more expensive and dangerous.

-They do not want to push to the brink a Government that has a clear and devastating military power. They actually know that the real reason of the famous Pearl Harbour attack where the crippling oil sanctions on Japan in 1941. And Japan did not have nukes and the state of the art weaponry of Russia.

-There are a lot of Western companies in Russia (Eg ExxonMobil for one) that have substantial assets in Russia that could be seized in a moment. Apart the issue of the single companies…there are enough assets to send the world directly in the Global Financial Crisis number 2. Russia at the point could cut off also the gas supply to Europe.

– Some countries that have issues with the US (China, India, Iran, Brasil to name a few) are carefully monitoring what is happening and preparing for a Pact of Warsaw number 2.

So they decide to bark at the Bear, without biting it. As I say do not wake up the Bear that sleeps.

Russia: don’t corner a Bear!

Posted: April 28, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: , ,

I know all the Western media propaganda depicts Russia as the evil aggressor (in a situation in which an anyway regularly elected government (for how much despicable) has been dethroned by a US sponsored revolution), but it would be better to let the Bear sleep than stoking the fires as the US continuously are doing.

Some explanation.

Putin has been by far the cleverest, if evil, politician around (excluding the Chinese)

Putin is stoking the fire or Russian nationalist (there are talks of a show trial of Gorbachev as the responsible of the USSR – logically part of a US conspiracy)

If real sanctions will be imposed Russia could retaliate cutting the gas (or rising the gas price) for Europe devastating the European economy that is looking at some frail hints of recovery.

Russia could easily take over Eastern Ukraine and, military, there is nothing that anyone can do.

If really cornered Russia could launch a world war 3 style cyber attack on the US. Russia has some of the best cyber attack specialisation. Do not under estimate the event. All your workplace, traffic management, utilities can be hit with a denial of service attack. I do not think that it will eventuate as it would be a World War 3 event.

I strictly do not believe in it, but it is too much of a funny coincidence not to write about …Nostradamus he predicted that a great war will start from the Black Sea in 2013/2015. Coincidence.

PS out of curiosity I read Nostradamus bits myself, once upon a time during a train strike. It is so convoluted that you can make him say whatever you want. But one of the last book was written in 2000…too far in the past for someone to make up stories about the Black Sea. You can always say that if you make enough stories some will be right (which is true). Anyway too strange not to write about it.