Posts Tagged ‘Japan’

Japan Rising Sun is back

Posted: July 1, 2014 in Uncategorized
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As anticipated, today Japanese Prime Minister Abe successfully approved a Constitutional change that allows Japan the use of force to protect itself and its allies.

The rule of pacifist Japan had been imposed by the US after the Second World War. As China is rising, it fits perfectly for the US to let (or push) Japan to re arm for its new strategy of unleashing regional rivalries (like Saudi/Iran) instead of being the world policeman. It is definitely cheaper, if riskier.

Again, this is another tectonic shift in this new millennium. It is not that we will pass immediately from a pacifist Japan to a fully militarized Japan, but Japan will be a force to be reckoned with in the Pacific (still in peace time it had the 6th largest military budget in the world).

Definitely China will notice and things around the Seniauku island will be hotting up. And now also Japan can start serious military collaborations with the Philippines, Vietnam, China

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Japan’s Rising Sun

Posted: May 19, 2014 in Uncategorized
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Japanese PM Abe finally did what a lot of observers wee waiting for: asked for a review to the limits of military action as imposed by the 2 World War re drafted constitution, paving the way for a full re-militarization of Japan.

It is a clear consequence of the bold Chinese moves in the South China Sea.

Naturally China gave a stern reprimand ‘reminding’ the Japanese counterpart of what happened with militarism in the early 1930.

Funny enough they are right, but they also missed the point that the behaviour displayed by Japan in the 1930s is actually very similar to the current Chinese behaviour.

 

On a related thought. Logically as a number game Japan cannot defeat the Chinese. As they have some of the most advanced robotic development programs (even toys and dolls), it would be logically that they could decide to build combat droids if the situation continues to deteriorate.

Since the era of Mao Zedong, China has adhered to the Zhou Dynasty military strategist Sun Tzu’s counsel: “subdue the enemy without any battle” by exploiting its weaknesses and camouflaging offense as defense. “All warfare,” Sun famously said, “is based on deception.”

The first, long forgotten, act had been the 1950’s encroachment in the Himalayas

Until 2006, China behaved as a good neighborhood. Then it started asserting claims on the Arunachal Pradesh (Indian territory, pretty remote and resource rich)

Last year, 2012, China effectively took control of the Scarborough Shoal, an area of the South China Sea that is also claimed by the Philippines and Taiwan. Philippines has now to accept a de facto conquest or go to war.

Now all attention is on the Senkaku Island for Japan (Diaoyu Island for China) and the Air Defence Zone. Again China is aiming at a “de facto” conquest.

Again in 2013 (bet you did not hear about this) China started ratcheting up pressure on India – on 15 April a Chinese platoon invaded (YES!)  the Arunachal Pradesh erecting a camp 20 kilometers inside Indian territory – retrieved only after three weeks of talks. Since then the LAC (Line of Actual Control….a defensive line between the 2 countries) is actually seeing a gradual build up of military deployment.

Just in the last month:

Tension with Vietnam are also rising in the South China Sea with the US approving a USD33 million package to the Vietnamese Navy.

South Korea just extended its Air Defence Zone to overlap the Chinese one and a US Battle Cruiser, USS Cowpens, almost collided with a Chinese navy vessel.

China has also started a series of dams to deviate river flows to increase pressure on the neighbors.

This seem to be a steady pattern for China – a full diplomacy intervention is needed before something will happen for real.

And considering that the region holds 50% of trades and 70% of electronic hardware, even a limited conflict would have huge repercussions.

 

 

China: Agent Provocateur, why?

Posted: November 29, 2013 in Uncategorized
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So why is China so provocative in its establishing a defense zone within the national waters of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea?

The oldest reason of the world….distract its own citizen from issues and “hidden” agendas.

There are few things that enrage more the average Chinese than Japan (read the history of the 2 World War and lack of saying sorry…and you would understand).

There are the Chinese reforms announced in November. Very ambitious and certain to disturb a lot of powers against Xi.

There is the general population angry at the scandal and corruption level of the political class, pollution levels, income disparity and lack of Western standard.

So a nice tension act as a general distraction.

For this to work it must not spark anything serious. And it shouldn’t. The drones are always what worries me most. They are easy to deploy and easier to shoot down and provoke a major incident.

The US flew two unharmed and old B52 over the disputed Chinese/Japanese islands as a sign that the Asian Pivot Strategy it is here to stay.

The Chinese did not react, but it is a clear sign of open escalation.

The more worrying signs are others….much less evident.

The US is starting to redeploy its military bases to unused old “WW2” including India in order to be able to be less prone to a Pearl Harbor style attack  initiated via Chinese missile attack.

This issue will make it easier for Japanese PM Abe to push for a full re militarization of the Japanese forces.

Again we are very far from a war, but accident can happen:

– Drones are very easy to fly to the target and so to get shot down

-Both Chinese and Japanese air forces have very limited combat experience (vs the US) and someone can get trigger happy or simply have an accident (in 2001 a Chinese jet fighter collided and crashed while trying to intercept a US surveillance aircraft)

So tensions are bound to increase.

China – Japan

Posted: November 25, 2013 in Uncategorized
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The situation between China and Japan continues to deteriorate.

China unilaterally declared an extension to the  “East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone” that includes the disputed island. This is another blow in the spat between the two countries.

Japan, apart protesting, announced the doubling of the fleet of on-air refueling airplanes and plan to introduce new faster and more agile patrol boat.

The war scenario China-Japan is extremely unlikely also due to the strict economic links between the two giants. But a misunderstanding (let’s say a downing of a drone) can happen with clear repercussions.

The US, once again, just criticized the new escalation….but it could be that also the new US Asia Pivot could be called to see if it is a bluff (like the Syrian ultimatum) or not. The US should do better its homework to be prepared as Russia will be already preparing another KGB style masterstroke like Syria.

Japan and China

Posted: October 29, 2013 in Uncategorized
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Japan and China are squaring off their military might in the South China Seas.

Nothing major …..just the synchronicity of two military test runs shows how in the years to come these will be a space to watch closely.

Japan even set up a few batteries of Type 88 surface to sea missile in Okinawa that are able to block one of the main obligatory passage (first islands barrier) for the Chinese maritime force.

Are we there yet? Not. But watch this space in a few years. One of the first thing to watch is when article 9 of the Japanese Constitution will be abolished (it is the article that prevents Japan to build an offensive military force after the 2nd World War)