Posts Tagged ‘Israel’

Turkey and Israel

Posted: April 8, 2014 in Uncategorized
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After years of enmities after the flotilla Palestinian aid disaster relationship between the two countries are starting to warm up again for a series of interests.

– They are studying how to co develop a gas basin situated in sea between Israel and Turkey (Lebanon and Syria) and also a gas pipeline

– Turkey is one of the main actors involved against Syria (allied with the Hezbollah) and after trying to involve more the US (there are unconfirmed report that the famous gas attack was in reality a false flag attack organized or by Turkey or Saudi secret services), is trying to create escalation motifs (recently they shot down a Syrian warplane and there has been at least one artillery exchange between Syria and Turkey. Moreover the Turkish PM Erogodan has plenty of issues that needs distraction and, in case of Assad’s Syria win…all the freedom fighters will return to Turkey – also the one linked to Al Qaeda.

-Israel never forgot the technically lost war against Hezbollah (first ever Israeli Defence Force (IDF)defeat) and currently Hezbollah are accumulating vast stockpiles of missiles against Israel

-The US is clearly not interested on intervening

-The IDF is developing a very focused suite of new weapons aimed at Hezbollah with the last war lessons (specifically smart long range artillery munitions

I wonder if Turkey and Israel are considering to solve this issue, once and for all. Definitely Assad and Hezbollah cannot fight against Israel and Turkey. Yes a weird combination…but when real politik calls (well probably it would not be explicitly  advertised in the media as a joint operation…Jew/Sunni against Shia)

 

Battle for Syria

Posted: December 3, 2013 in Uncategorized
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The television is kind of bored about Syria, but in reality the war is stepping up.

The 22 January there is the first real peace talk and the various sides want to arrive there in prime position.

Plus there is the temptation from Saudi and Israel (what a strange alliance!) to create problem for the Iran/US talks.

There has been an increase of quantity/quality of weapons smuggled in from Jordan from Saudi Arabia, Qatar (apparently with the help of Israel) and Turkey. Apparently also there are sign of electronic warfare assistance with signature devices typical of the IDF (Israel Defense Force). Also some appearance of Croatian war weapons (usually more lethal of the current stock) is starting to appear.

In Lebanon Hezbollah is reinforcing its position in the civilian villages near Israel and meanwhile Shiva (apparently) attacks against Hezbollah are on the increase.

 

Wag a dog was a beautiful movie about how a Government can fake a crisis in order to distract people and achieve other objectives. That is what I think of Syria and why, in the end, it will just another buying opportunity in the market – unless there is a serious miscalculation somewhere.

A gas attack is a terrible thing. But in the 1980s thousands of Iranian and Kurdish died of gas attack (from the US supported Saddam) and nobody said anything….because there was the greater issue of the Cold War and a nice terrible 8 years war was distracting two large Arab country.

Now we have the US which has to answer because a red line has been crossed (nothing to do with the gas poising…less of a 1,000 people on a 110,000 death war). But it does not want Assad to collapse as the projection give Al Qaeda as a clear winner of an Assad fall. That is the real motivation before the delay in action and the call for limited strikes.

Moreover it has the side benefit to distract everyone from the US Fed tapering…..but more important solve the looming Debt Ceiling debate in October.

It also opens a realpolitik alliance with Iran (apparently Oman’s leadership went to Iran with nice US messages and openings). If you noticed Iran has been much more restrained than usual in their threat.

Israel actually likes the situation of a weakened but not out Assad (apparently the Occupied Golan Heights have a lot of oil underneath and if no-one is there to contest it is all theirs….or better the contract of oil  extraction has been already assigned to Genie Energy (owned by…guess (and cry) by Jacob Rothschild and Rupert Murdoch)  – Please note in international law is illegal to use resource of an occupied country (Singapore vs Japan, International Court of Justice sentence 1945)

The party that really wants the fall of Assad are actually the Saudi as they fight for the Middle East supremacy against Iran (there is even a theory that if it was not the Government to use gas – it could be some Saudi sponsored element).

In effect all brings to a “show war” more than a real war. Also Russia show is more to get credits in other negotiation than anything else.

Yes there will be some real consequences as some Hezbollah actions against Israel (nothing new there….it just usually does not make the news).

As usual with any war, there could be unintended consequences: Hezbollah and Assad’s brother are the one to watch. And the master puppeteer – the Saudis