Posts Tagged ‘ISIS’

ISIS in Iraq and the markets

Posted: June 23, 2014 in Uncategorized
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Well, the something is wrong is clearly ISIS in Iraq and the oil prices.

Notwithstanding talks of the Iraq government fight back the situation on the field is quite murky.

ISIS is not just ISIS “terrorist organisation”. It is also allied with numerous Sunni’s tribes and Sunni ex Army units as the fight is not ISIS vs Iraq, but Sunnis vs Shiites. 

– Isis control most of the North -West (aside the Kurdish North)

They actually dismantlement the borders with Syria and Jordan, allowing reinforcement to pour in. There are fonts that their forces in Syria have substantially decreased.

The Kurds (Sunni) are both courted by ISIS (and Saudi) not to get involved and by Iraq’ Maliki (logics would tend to favour ISIS and Saudis which are Sunni).

Syrian aviation is bombing positions of ISIS in Iraq to show Iran that they are doing their part (but now ISIS got hold of American land to air weaponry).

It is pretty clear that ISIS want to mount an attack to Baghdad from the West side.

As per Iraq, with the help of Iran, it is amassing a 50,000 army north of Baghdad for a counter-offensive – that could be successful or not. But it could be as the Iranian backing is very powerful.

– Saudis have warned Iran against interfering with Iraq

– The so called potential alliance Iran-US, seems not happening.

naturally all this influence oil Brent now is at $115 (it  was 100-108 before this) and, if it breaks $120, the two major resistances are $127 and the terrible $150. The target $127 seems pretty achievable.

Iraq: intervention!

Posted: June 13, 2014 in Uncategorized
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So ISIS (Al Qaeda Syria) took over half of Iraq! Although it caught many by surprise – it is not really a surprise.

Al Qaeda’s ISIS was quite powerful in Norther Iraq (they are Sunni and North Iraq is Sunni, while Iraq’s Government is Shia…so the Iraq troops they are almost seen as invaders).

Now ISIS will start to lose ground as Iran (yes Iran) has already deployed two battalions of QUDS (special forces of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards) in the South East along with Iraqi arm while the US is still discussing.

In the North the Kurdish forces (probably backed by the Turks) contained the advance reconquering Tikrit.

But Al Qaeda is not stupid…..sacrificed a few extremists to get back in the media headline and seize a considerable amount of cash (over USD400 million) and modern US weaponry.

This is part of the interregional war between Saudi and Iranians. The US will now step up weaponry sales to Iraq and the Syria Free Army.

Happiest man ever will be Putin that got two presents …higher oil price and a distraction from Ukraine (apparently 3 tanks, presumably Russian, entered Ukraine).

Now we need to watch also the oil prices…