Posts Tagged ‘Iraq’

ISIS in Iraq and the markets

Posted: June 23, 2014 in Uncategorized
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Well, the something is wrong is clearly ISIS in Iraq and the oil prices.

Notwithstanding talks of the Iraq government fight back the situation on the field is quite murky.

ISIS is not just ISIS “terrorist organisation”. It is also allied with numerous Sunni’s tribes and Sunni ex Army units as the fight is not ISIS vs Iraq, but Sunnis vs Shiites. 

– Isis control most of the North -West (aside the Kurdish North)

They actually dismantlement the borders with Syria and Jordan, allowing reinforcement to pour in. There are fonts that their forces in Syria have substantially decreased.

The Kurds (Sunni) are both courted by ISIS (and Saudi) not to get involved and by Iraq’ Maliki (logics would tend to favour ISIS and Saudis which are Sunni).

Syrian aviation is bombing positions of ISIS in Iraq to show Iran that they are doing their part (but now ISIS got hold of American land to air weaponry).

It is pretty clear that ISIS want to mount an attack to Baghdad from the West side.

As per Iraq, with the help of Iran, it is amassing a 50,000 army north of Baghdad for a counter-offensive – that could be successful or not. But it could be as the Iranian backing is very powerful.

– Saudis have warned Iran against interfering with Iraq

– The so called potential alliance Iran-US, seems not happening.

naturally all this influence oil Brent now is at $115 (it  was 100-108 before this) and, if it breaks $120, the two major resistances are $127 and the terrible $150. The target $127 seems pretty achievable.

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About Iraq

Posted: June 17, 2014 in Uncategorized
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Well Iraq is in a mess again….and really it was in the card.

Why it happened is because, after the US left, the government fell under the Iranian influence – who are Shias.

And the north of Iraq is Sunni….and Shias forces are pretty much considered invaders.

ISIS just took advantage of this situation.

So where we are at now? Practically a balkanization of Iraq.

ISIS achieved its own target: raise awareness, get cash (from Mosul’s Central Bank coffers), newish weapon and decrease Iranian presence in Syria.

Iran is introducing some proxy forces to help Iraq at least to keep Baghdad and make it look like winners. Iran is very worried as it needs to call back some forces from Syria (ISIS idea from the start) to stabilize its satellite state Iraq.

The Kurdish separatist are one of the major winners, here. Unknown to the media at large, the Kurdish Peshmarga forces already cut out a part of Iraq for themselves (rightly so as it was theirs) and now they are entrenching themselves as a real force and state to be reckoned with.

The state that has the biggest stake here, apart Iran, it is actually China – as China is the biggest customer of Iraqi’s oil as China Petroleum scooped up almost all oil contract (they should send boot on the ground. It is with sadness that all the American soldiers died for a Iranian/Chinese advantage).

On that point I would agree with the first words of Obama…they should sort out their own mess (or better Irana and China).

 

Graphically oil could hit 116 a barrel. 

 

Iraq: intervention!

Posted: June 13, 2014 in Uncategorized
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So ISIS (Al Qaeda Syria) took over half of Iraq! Although it caught many by surprise – it is not really a surprise.

Al Qaeda’s ISIS was quite powerful in Norther Iraq (they are Sunni and North Iraq is Sunni, while Iraq’s Government is Shia…so the Iraq troops they are almost seen as invaders).

Now ISIS will start to lose ground as Iran (yes Iran) has already deployed two battalions of QUDS (special forces of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards) in the South East along with Iraqi arm while the US is still discussing.

In the North the Kurdish forces (probably backed by the Turks) contained the advance reconquering Tikrit.

But Al Qaeda is not stupid…..sacrificed a few extremists to get back in the media headline and seize a considerable amount of cash (over USD400 million) and modern US weaponry.

This is part of the interregional war between Saudi and Iranians. The US will now step up weaponry sales to Iraq and the Syria Free Army.

Happiest man ever will be Putin that got two presents …higher oil price and a distraction from Ukraine (apparently 3 tanks, presumably Russian, entered Ukraine).

Now we need to watch also the oil prices…

Focus back on Iraq

Posted: June 12, 2014 in Uncategorized
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Al Qaeda captured Mosul – so what is the matter for us?

The matter is that at this point there will be some kind if covert or not covert US involvement.

In Mosul Al Qaeda captured also US (Iraq lent) Blackrock helicopter and modern US weaponry, 48 Turkish Embassy hostages, over US$400 million and threatening the Iraqis oil sites (and oil prices). Practically they are forming the Arab Caliphate of the wildest dreams.

So there will be intervention in one form or another.