Posts Tagged ‘Iran’

The deal US/Iran can be very important for you.

Iran currently exports 750,000 barrel of oil per day, while its non- sanction capacity is 2,500,000 barrel of oil per day – practically the difference is a full 10% of the US oil consumption!

The Oil (WTI) now still trades within its “band” around USD 94, but specially after Christmas there will be a slow descent which will increase under USD92.

Now Iran will be allowed to export 1,000,000, not the full $2,500,000. The oil will probably slowly descend towards is  no risk price of $75/80. When and if Iran will be allowed its full capacity (probably 2015 if nothing goes wrong) we could even see oil around USD 65.

This is practically a boost of 10% in every company and even in your wallet when you go and refuel your vehicle.

The first round of negotiation between the US and Iran have ended with a “no deal” – but everyone is much more positive than ever, A solution is in sight.

This is another leg of the revolutions are happening around the world that will shape the world as we know it in the next decade, but most too narrow focus to see.

A re-alignment between Iran and the USA have consequences directly in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and indirect consequences on Israel, Saudi Arabia (and satellites) and Turkey. Saudi Arabia is already said to be in talks to acquire nuclear warheads from Pakistan, if Tehran is allowed to go nuclear.

It is almost funny to see how Iran and US have much more in common than US and the Saudis.

Other geo political revolutions are the neo-isolationism of the US (practically letting mini regional superpower battle out for regional supremacy) while still maintaining a technological advantage in case of all-out war, the resurgence of Japan (also in military terms) and Russia and the European decadence.

Wag a dog was a beautiful movie about how a Government can fake a crisis in order to distract people and achieve other objectives. That is what I think of Syria and why, in the end, it will just another buying opportunity in the market – unless there is a serious miscalculation somewhere.

A gas attack is a terrible thing. But in the 1980s thousands of Iranian and Kurdish died of gas attack (from the US supported Saddam) and nobody said anything….because there was the greater issue of the Cold War and a nice terrible 8 years war was distracting two large Arab country.

Now we have the US which has to answer because a red line has been crossed (nothing to do with the gas poising…less of a 1,000 people on a 110,000 death war). But it does not want Assad to collapse as the projection give Al Qaeda as a clear winner of an Assad fall. That is the real motivation before the delay in action and the call for limited strikes.

Moreover it has the side benefit to distract everyone from the US Fed tapering…..but more important solve the looming Debt Ceiling debate in October.

It also opens a realpolitik alliance with Iran (apparently Oman’s leadership went to Iran with nice US messages and openings). If you noticed Iran has been much more restrained than usual in their threat.

Israel actually likes the situation of a weakened but not out Assad (apparently the Occupied Golan Heights have a lot of oil underneath and if no-one is there to contest it is all theirs….or better the contract of oil  extraction has been already assigned to Genie Energy (owned by…guess (and cry) by Jacob Rothschild and Rupert Murdoch)  – Please note in international law is illegal to use resource of an occupied country (Singapore vs Japan, International Court of Justice sentence 1945)

The party that really wants the fall of Assad are actually the Saudi as they fight for the Middle East supremacy against Iran (there is even a theory that if it was not the Government to use gas – it could be some Saudi sponsored element).

In effect all brings to a “show war” more than a real war. Also Russia show is more to get credits in other negotiation than anything else.

Yes there will be some real consequences as some Hezbollah actions against Israel (nothing new there….it just usually does not make the news).

As usual with any war, there could be unintended consequences: Hezbollah and Assad’s brother are the one to watch. And the master puppeteer – the Saudis

Obama bluff has been called and there will be war. And there will be death. Americans will be again seen as heroes and ruthless killers at the same time.

Obama last year declared that a gas attack would be a clear red line because he thought Assad was not so stupid to conduct one.

What really happened, nobody will know. has it really been staged by rebels to provoke an attack (smartest move from rebels on a verge of defeat- but they do not seem to have the weapon delivery systems to conduct such an attack – US “Mission Impossible” kind of spies? Difficult – Saudis spies….that could have a chance). Was it Assad? He is not stupid…I do not think so. What I think (and it is of no consequences) is that some rogue part of the Syrian Army (Assad’s bloodthirsty brother or  some Iranian proxy) did it.

As a famous Italian comedian, Pirandello,  says ” It is so (if you think so)”.

The reality is that the Obama’s bluff has been called and war will be. Otherwise Iran and North Korea and anyone else (Russia, China) will know that their own red line do not exist.

Obama clearly does not want “boot on the ground” and has delivery weapon systems to proceed with “stand off attacks” (attacks carried from outside the Syrian airspace). 4 US Navy Destroyers are already in place. Strategic bomber can attack from bases in the UK and Saudi Arabia and the US 5th Fleet with two supercarriers are less than 48 hours away. There is at least one nuclear sub around there.

Thursday the UK Parliament has been urgently recalled.

What Syria (and its allies) can do. Syria has a good air defense system, but very limited offensive capacity (specially considering that they cannot risk to “disturb” also Israel. Iran can be a nasty surprise probably asking Hezbollah to attack/kidnap Westerners in Lebanon. Russia has already played its card with Snowden.

So it should be limited. But war is war. And oil and gold will start running again (well they already started) and the market will have its own (overdue) correction.