Posts Tagged ‘India’

Since the era of Mao Zedong, China has adhered to the Zhou Dynasty military strategist Sun Tzu’s counsel: “subdue the enemy without any battle” by exploiting its weaknesses and camouflaging offense as defense. “All warfare,” Sun famously said, “is based on deception.”

The first, long forgotten, act had been the 1950’s encroachment in the Himalayas

Until 2006, China behaved as a good neighborhood. Then it started asserting claims on the Arunachal Pradesh (Indian territory, pretty remote and resource rich)

Last year, 2012, China effectively took control of the Scarborough Shoal, an area of the South China Sea that is also claimed by the Philippines and Taiwan. Philippines has now to accept a de facto conquest or go to war.

Now all attention is on the Senkaku Island for Japan (Diaoyu Island for China) and the Air Defence Zone. Again China is aiming at a “de facto” conquest.

Again in 2013 (bet you did not hear about this) China started ratcheting up pressure on India – on 15 April a Chinese platoon invaded (YES!)  the Arunachal Pradesh erecting a camp 20 kilometers inside Indian territory – retrieved only after three weeks of talks. Since then the LAC (Line of Actual Control….a defensive line between the 2 countries) is actually seeing a gradual build up of military deployment.

Just in the last month:

Tension with Vietnam are also rising in the South China Sea with the US approving a USD33 million package to the Vietnamese Navy.

South Korea just extended its Air Defence Zone to overlap the Chinese one and a US Battle Cruiser, USS Cowpens, almost collided with a Chinese navy vessel.

China has also started a series of dams to deviate river flows to increase pressure on the neighbors.

This seem to be a steady pattern for China – a full diplomacy intervention is needed before something will happen for real.

And considering that the region holds 50% of trades and 70% of electronic hardware, even a limited conflict would have huge repercussions.

 

 

The US flew two unharmed and old B52 over the disputed Chinese/Japanese islands as a sign that the Asian Pivot Strategy it is here to stay.

The Chinese did not react, but it is a clear sign of open escalation.

The more worrying signs are others….much less evident.

The US is starting to redeploy its military bases to unused old “WW2” including India in order to be able to be less prone to a Pearl Harbor style attack  initiated via Chinese missile attack.

This issue will make it easier for Japanese PM Abe to push for a full re militarization of the Japanese forces.

Again we are very far from a war, but accident can happen:

– Drones are very easy to fly to the target and so to get shot down

-Both Chinese and Japanese air forces have very limited combat experience (vs the US) and someone can get trigger happy or simply have an accident (in 2001 a Chinese jet fighter collided and crashed while trying to intercept a US surveillance aircraft)

So tensions are bound to increase.