Posts Tagged ‘Emerging Market damage’

I like what he says as he has direct connections with Central bankers.

In a short summery.

The exodus from EM is not finished. Going towards US Bond, US Tech and healthcare stocks, but temporary.

Talked to FED and they are not worried about EM market – not because it does not worry them, but because it fits their purposes…it makes bond go up (yield down), improve lending condition and mitigate asset bubble.

THERE IS CONTAGION RISK Foreign Debt outflow (Hungary, Philippines, Indonesia, Poland, Turkey and Mexico) and Stock outflow (Hungary, Taiwan, Korea, Brazil and Thailand). It will persist over the year.

VIX around 19 signal Bearish undertone. (14.5 rally over 21 massacre).

Summary: lot of technical damage, but he thinks there could be a last leg up (under the recent top) before the end of the rally started March 2009. Pretty dangerous condition.