US Election 2020

Posted: August 10, 2020 in Uncategorized

The US election are on November 3rd.

President Trump is at light disadvantage to Biden at the moment (less than the media would like you to believe), but the real game will be the US economy in September.

There are a few other factors to consider

-With Corona Virus probably it will be a Postal vote with issue of recounting and errors with the nominee not known until late November/ December (remember the 2000 elections Bush- Al Gore and the Florida mess.

-The issue of the popular vote and the electoral college (The system in the US is made like that as New York and California have enough votes to win the popular vote. As New York and California are traditionally pro Dem – Republican Presidents would never have a chance to be elected on a popular vote only basis).

While stats will tell you that the stock market has generally been better under a Democrat rule – it has been more a merit of history than a real bias.

Probably the effects of the new President will last just a few months.

A mess with the postal vote would translate a 5 to 10% correction.

A Republican win would bring a 2% upside – especially for defence, energy, big tech. More problematic for companies that rely on business with China.

A Democrat sweep will be a limited down side (5% to 10%) positive for green companies, materials. bad for big tech

A Democrat win, but with the Senate still in re hands will be the best option as would be good for big tech and big pharma.

China would be “enemy number one” for both sides but Chinese will be making more offers to Biden as they do not like the unpredictability of President trump.

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