The 15th October I told the clients that we would have issues – even telling them that we could see the low of February.
Unfortunately I was right, even if I hoped for a V style correction – now it is almost certain will be W style.
This correction is doing a lot of damage. When it will finish? Good question – most probably end of November – where Trump-Xi probably will agree to an armistice in the trade wars.
Unfortunately we are at the edge of the end. Usually the market bull ends in a sharp correction (now, than a sharp bounce and then the end. Probably by Q2 2019 (March-May 2019).
Bear market does not mean a Global Financial Crisis 2 – that was a systemic failure.
An average Bear market last 13 months and it is defined by top to bottom loss of over 20%. Usually the market than recovers in two to three years.
The best way to address a bear market is
- Not panic
- Diversification
- Cash aside to buy good companies at great price
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