US yield break out!

Posted: October 4, 2018 in Uncategorized

Finally the US 10 year broke with decision the previous top!

It is at 3.18% with a target 4.5%. Inflation will come!

But ..wait a minute…the market did not collapse!!

In reality if you analyse the last bond bear market 1952-1980 (yes that far away) there are takes.

1. 1952_1972 the market went more or less up

2. 1972_1980 the market went in dive…but only after the USD leaving the gold standard, oil embargoes, Nixon etc.

3. It is so far away that so many lot things changed.

In effect a few other events have to happen to start a crisis.

But they are all there…oil, Trump, trade wars. So maximum alert.

Many institutions will start to pay attention to 3.5% _3.8%.

One sure consequence is that the mortgage interest rates will go up and Australian real estate down.

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