The all -important US Congress election are at the door.
My most likely outcome scenarios are
- Senate stay Republican and House goes Democrat. At current standing this scenario has 50% chances of happening. It is a positive scenario for stocks.
- Both Senate and House goes Democratic – this will be temporarily negative for the S market/bond/dollar. Apart hating Trump the Dems are not united on anything….so the backlash should be temporary. This scenario stands at 35%
- Both House and Senate stays Republican. This is an unlikely scenario (15-20%) that would favor Republican sectors (banking, defence etc) vs Dem stocks (Auto, infrastructure, hospitals)
investorpolitico 