US election – Congress

Posted: September 10, 2018 in Uncategorized

The all -important US Congress election are at the door.

 

My most likely outcome scenarios are

  1. Senate stay Republican and House goes Democrat. At current standing this scenario has 50% chances of happening. It is a positive scenario for stocks.
  2. Both Senate and House goes Democratic – this will be temporarily negative for the S market/bond/dollar. Apart hating Trump the Dems are not united on anything….so the backlash should be temporary. This scenario stands at 35%
  3. Both House and Senate stays Republican. This is an unlikely scenario (15-20%) that would favor Republican sectors (banking, defence etc) vs Dem stocks (Auto, infrastructure, hospitals)
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