1914 is the year that started the First World War, leaving a death toll of over 20 million.
Apart the back swan event – the pattern is very similar
Pre 1914
Technology was advancing super fast, cars – train – airplanes
A lot of crisis where erupting everywhere (1898 Nile, Morocco 1905 and 1911, Balkan crisis 1912-1913
The reigning empire (UK) as declining and a new empire emerging (German-Austrian Hungarian).
Industrialization was creating a new super rich elite and vast number of workers-slave.
Japan embraced the Western industrialization process and showed the world that a non Western power could rise very fast.
Then there was the trigger -assassination of the ArchDuch Ferdinand kileed by a shady terrorist called Black Hands and sponsored by a rogue part of the Serbian Secret Services. It followed a pogrom (mass killing) of Serbs (over 1,000 houses and shops were burnt – killed number unknown)
Pre 2018
Technology is advancing super fast – AI, 3D printing, Internet of Things
A lot of crisis are happening everywhere (Ukraine, Lybia, Syria, surge in conflict India/Pakistan, assertiveness of China, Korea).
The reigning empire is declining (US) and the new is rising (China)
Digitization is creating a transnational cast of super rich and populism and migration are displacing the poor.
The all Asia is embracing the Western digitization.
Only a trigger is missing. Hence everyone should be paying attention to the President Trump killing of the JCPOA (Iranian deal).
If something serious happens between Israel and Iran – we have the Black Swan that could spark a World War 3 (Iran is backed by Russia and China). And you can easily image the US Deep State planning a “a Black Hand” scenario.
I am not predicting a major war – but the elements are all there.
By the way the assassination of the Archduke happened 28 June and until August 2014 it looked alike one of the various other crisis (the official start was 28 July).
Historian Gary Sheffield argues that in reality war was brought forward by “First, decision-makers in Berlin and Vienna chose to pursue a course that they hoped would bring about significant political advantages even if it brought about general war. Second, the governments in the entente states rose to the challenge.”
Sounds familiar to President Trump’s America First to me. Unfortunately.
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