Syria: a real Game of Thrones

Posted: February 13, 2018 in Uncategorized

People likes to read the Games of Thrones – while there is a real one.

Now that Islamic State has been defeated as a coherent ground force – the real war starts to appear.

In the North, Turkey is making its advances in the Syria- Kurd territory (with the implicit assent of Russia) , but the advance is slower than predicted and casualties are mounting (the Kurd shot down an helicopter) as the Syrian Government (with the consent of Russia and Iran) starts to delivering support to the Kurd. Erdogan probably as until August to “solve” the situation before the media turns against him.

Turkey tried to spearhead deeper in Syria, but Russia started bombing ahead of the convoy to say – I do not like it.

The Iranian/ Russian/Syria tried to advance towards North East in the US Supported Free Syrian forces (and an oil field of Conoco Philips) and clearly showed that the US does not approve by bombing 150 Syrian soldiers and shooting down a Russian Su 25 (Su 25 is a well defended aircraft – so probably the manpad (shouldered missile) was a top of the shelf Manpad – maybe US Special Forces).

In the south an Iranian drone provoked an almost war situation with Israel. As Iran has no intention to provoke Israel – probably this was a pretext of Israel to give a lesson – but they lost their first airplane in combat since 1982 (please note this is geopolitics not propaganda against Israel – simple as a matter of fact Israel need to send a message to Iran). The plane was shot above Israel as planes do not need anymore to hit from above.

“Fortunately” no one really want a full blown up war as the economic costs would be excessive – so, after the fact they all show restrain in escalating (Russia has S-400 and S-500 anti air missile which are  some of the best system – but it is still not using it).

But a misjudgment is just a trigger finger away.

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