Australia – the desolation of Turnbull

Posted: February 5, 2018 in Uncategorized

Australia at best is just flat and 2018 could get worse.

After the massacre of every sector starting with manufacturing, we remain only with tourism (very expensive), education and immigration to save the country.

Commodities are completely dependent on China. China saved Australia as they had the all important election Congress – but this year they will really need to reduce leverage in the system. We have a bit of protection from the fact that our iron ore is less polluting than the Chinese one – but do not expect growth there.

Housing indicators are turning south and building activity has slowed down.

Spending is down with zero wage growth and rising costs.

Infrastructure spending is underway – but meant to soften the blow – not enough to avoid it.

In general the earning growth in the ASX200 is subdued (driven by banks), but there are positive patches and in general valuation re expensive, dragged up by the US valuations.

Confronted with this PM Turnbull starts thinking about the defeat in 2019.

His response has been a…..”Trump lite” reform.

-promising a tax cut reduction (oh my…..a Trump-tax lite reform).

-Pushing the defense industry (let’s call it as it is weapon-selling) industry to be one of the largest exporters by 2020. It could have been health or education or superannuation.

And before you accuse just PM Turnbull of incompetence, let’s remind ourselvesthat the high energy bills comes to some errors due to Rudd-Gillard Government.

But also before that the Australian politics have been riddled of policy mistakes (electricity prices already skyrocketed +72% between 2003 and 3013 – font Australian Bureau of Statistics).

What is the issue? Apart the incompetency of our government, it is our election cycle.

Three years election cycles make that no-long term policies can be created and implemented.

You can see with PM Turnbull – it is turning to the next election so it does not care anymore about the scaremongering Budget Debt (which is not – well much better than almost every other country) and think about…tax cuts!!

 

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