(un)intended consequences

Posted: December 7, 2017 in Uncategorized

The world is changing very fast.

President Trump recognized Jerusalem as an Israel capital. It does violate the 2002 Arab peace initiative and start another fire in the already inflamed Middle East situation an a potential Syria (Iran)- Israel confrontation.

Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will protest, but are unlikely to do more than talk – the more dangerous of them all is Turkey as it is already aligning with Russia – the other countries have too much to lose (and Jordan as a mutual defense pact with Israel).

But in the long run is introducing a new schism between the US and the Middle East.

The Gulf Cooperation Council that practically created the stability in the Gulf region has practically been dismantled. There is UAE-Saudi Arabia and the others. Qatar is getting more aligned with Iran (and you can see the consequences from the number of missile shot from Yemen to Saudi Arabia and UAE).

North Korea – even if a war does not happen will signify that the US is weak in Asia. As a consequence it lays a future (5 to 10 years away) war between Japan (technology) and India (manpower) against China (which has technology and manpower).

As the US retreats other players are entering the fray.

Russia in the Middle East is becoming the new superpower (Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Egypt) and building alliances all over the world – Russia has always been renown for cheaper, less sophisticated but more reliable weapons than the West.*

*A typical example is the Vietnam War M16 vs AK47 machine guns comparison. While the M16 had better range, better precision and was lighter – the AK47 was cheaper, more reliable (you could leave it for months underwater!), required less cleaning, no training and had more devastating impact – the better weapon for a jungle warfare.

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