This is a quick update as I have been really busy.
- North Korea
It is still there. The absence of exercises from Kim (plenty from trump) is more due to a classic pattern of the North Korean Army. During the fall usually the army workforce is used for agricultural purposes. There has always been a lull into March. So a normal pattern. I still think Kim is working hard in a sub-orbital hydrogen bomb test – but he needs to make sure it does not fail.
The interesting development is that -first in the last two year – an official Chinese envoy went to North Korea. And China is building a 6 lanes highway to North Korea.
Secondary voices say that there has been a pact China- US during the US tour. Trump gave a free hand to China in the South China Sea in exchange of a serious effort against North Korea. So the envoy is bringing an ultimatum to Kim.
I do not know if he will listen. Three years ago Kim killed all the ally of China – including his own uncle.
- Saudi Arabia
It has been reported that the condition of release of the jailed prices is..giving up their wealth (some up to 70%!) – close to a USD trillion dollar. So, aside the power consolidation, this as a pure money grabbing exercise as the Saudi Reserves were down from USD700bn to USD400bn. This also could come handy in the next war Israel/Saudi versus Hezbollah/Iran.
Iran has been very restrained (from an historically point of view), but definitely preparing for the worst.
Everyone is trying to tame this scenario as it would be really cataclysmic. Hezbollah probably could not fight alone versus the power of Israel and Saudi Arabia – so iran would be dragged in and all the Middle East would go up in flame. Oil would spike to over USD100 starting a new financial crisis that would be exacerbated by Exchange Traded Fund and Robo trading. You understand why everyone wants to stop it.
- US
The House passed the first step of tax reform. It is a great achievement. It still needs to pass the Senate. It will be a close call – but it could happen as the Republican – after the loss of two states – now they are sure that by Mid Term Nov 2018 election their majority will be evaporated.
A report from BBC showed the US let escape over 4,000 angry IS fighter from Raqqa with truckloads of weapon. Most of them disappeared in thin air to Turkey – there were a lot of foreign fighters heading back to Europe ( a lot from France). In the next IS attack you know who to blame.
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