investorpolitico

Turkey and the US have upped the ante by banning VISAs and other diplomatic issues.

This is the peak of almost two years of reciprocal anger between the US (and the West in general) and Turkey.

The main contentious point is, media aside, Syria.

The US in Syria sided heavily with the Kurdish Peshmerga to defeat IS and try to defeat the Syrian Army and practically creating a Kurdish de facto state. And for Turkey the kurds are terrorist.

Turkey has a population of circa 15-20% of Kurds which want independence  as they have a different ethnicity.

As Syria is being de facto split in zone of influence (Syrian Government/Iran/Russia, IS (mainly desertic area now), US/Kurdish, Turkish rebels).

Now, due to the US support, Turkey almost lost all territories in Syria as the Al Qaeda rebels (some say again supported by the US against IS) are encroaching in the Ibid province. And, as of tonight, the Turkey army entered the Ibid province to reclaim the territories, with the air support of Russia.

In effect this is one of the final moves of Turkey to shift from NATO/US alliance to a Russia/China alliance.

It is not formal as Erdogan does  not want to be seen as the one that breaks the European deal and abandon NATO and the US does not want to loose the second largest NATO army – but de facto the middle east is lost* to Russia and China. This has huge strategic, economic and political implications.

This is not fault of President Trump – but a major failure of President Obama and Secretary Clinton.

• It is lost as, meanwhile, Egypt signed off a major oil field deal with Rosfnet (Russia), Libya major rebel formation of Colonel Haftar is now a Russian friend, and Saudi Arabia just signed an historic deal with Russia for $3bn or armament including the land to air S400 missile batteries and other side deal)

Russia now has Syria, Iran (and Iraq), Turkey and is making friends with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya and Israel).

Russia is making sure to be seen as the good broker by all parts in the Middle East – something rarely achieved.

Putin, master of spies, reminds me of Karla, the famous Soviet spy of John Le Carre Books.

He is brilliant on foreign policies, less so with internal growth economics -only that could bring his own fall.