North Korea saga

Posted: August 29, 2017 in Uncategorized

Yes another missile launch and this time over Japan. Only another time, in 1998, a North Korea missile flew over Japan (a supposed satellite rocket- not a missile).

 

What is good (not much), is that it flew over  the northern part of Hokkaido – with few people and very little potential of misunderstanding.

 

What is particularly bad, apart the obvious, is that this shatters a negotiation possibilities.

 

Since the “fury” words of President Trump all seemed to go quiet. The US did not respond to the three missiles launch over the weekend and the media at large did not even report a simulated NK special forces attack on 2 islands.

So everybody was counting on a reprieve and secret peace talks. This shatters the idea.

 

Now the calculus is shifting.

Does Kim think that the United States is bluffing, or does he think that the U.S. will strike North Korea to prevent it from advancing its nuclear weapons program? If Kim thinks the U.S. will not intervene, or if he thinks he can survive a U.S. attack, then he will continue to pursue a nuclear weapons program, integral as it is to his grand plan to unite the peninsula. Or if the regime is really brought to collapse due to sanctions he could decide to go out in a ball of fire instead of Saddam or Gaddafi with a whimper.

However, if Kim thinks the U.S. is willing to go to war and, in going to war, defeat him, he will likely subordinate his long-term ambitions to more pressing matters of survival.

President Trump is different …can he afford a red line to be crossed and look like President Obama and treat North Korea as USSR of old age.

Or, attacked by every side in the US, decided that a war with North Korea is a good escape out of his problems. No one impeaches a President at war.

Dr Strangelove is more actual than ever. Viewing of the movie is highly recommended. And fun, until is real (for how old the movieis, in the Oliver Stone “Putin Interviews”, Putin, after watching the movie, said to Oliver Stone – you would be surprised to know how many people still think like Dr. Strangelove).

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