North Korea – update 15 August – detail

Posted: August 15, 2017 in Uncategorized

Kim Yong un examined the plan for an attack on Guam and decided that, while he liked it, he will not enact it unless the US acts aggressively again. He also said if there is a 2 Korean War it will be nuclear.

In a sense this is good as de-escalation goes.

On the American side, the US made clear that an attack on Guam it will be considered an act of war.

Now, between the 21st and 31st August there will be some planned US-South Korea war games and North Korean seems to prepare an SBLM test (submarine launched ICBM).

The good thing in this pantomime is that, from internet sources, nor the US nor North Korea have moved a lot of assets in war position (unless both are planning nuclear strikes first…which do not need movements of troops etc).

By the way…the media are saying that the North Korean will never give up nuclear weapons. In effect this translation is incorrect.

From the organization that manages the deconflict zone (DMZ) the real wording is this:

미국의 적대시 정책과 핵위협이 근원적으로 청산되지 않는 한 우리는 그 어떤 경우에도 핵과 탄도로케트를 협상탁에 올려놓지 않을 것이며 우리가 선택한 핵무력 강화의 길에서 단 한치도 물러서지 않을 것입니다.

“Unless the hostile policy and nuclear threat of the U.S. against the D.P.R.K. are fundamentally eliminated, we, under no circumstances, will put the nukes and ballistic rockets on the negotiating table and will not flinch even an inch away from our path of strengthening of the nuclear forces, which is chosen by ourselves.”

So there is space for negotiations.

As both parties are trying to avoid war, I just hope that there are no errors or misinterpretations like in the past (in Vietnam the Tonkin Bay that escalated the US involvement  was found erroneous in 1992 and the 1 World War, after the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian heir, started with an ultimatum served by the Austro-Hungarian empire to a secondary power, Serbia, with a big friend (Russia).

— detail

 

The market seems to have interpret that North Korea is backing off. This interpretation spruiked by the media is wrong.

Kim always said that the plan to hit Guam would be presented on the 15th to himself and then he will consider. Definitely he will look at the military exercises US/North Korea due between the 21th Aug and 31 August and then he will decide. So he is doing precisely what he said.

Another interesting news is an analysis by the US Secret Service (unconfirmed). The question was how the North Korean could have made a leap from last years failures? The engines of the ICBM looks like coming from an Ukrainian factory (so Ukraine, not the rebel side).

It seems that after the US sponsored coup in Ukraine (not a conspiracy theory – there are the tapes of Victoria Nuland of the State Department under President Obama to confirm it) this factory – which was used for Russian rockets) lost contract and money and fired a lot of specialist engineers which evidently found a new way to make money.

The wheel that goes around, turns around.

 

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