France, after the elections (Update)

Posted: May 3, 2017 in Uncategorized

whoever wins he will have a hard time after the election.

France data are slightly improving, but they are just a mere reflection of the improvements of surrounding partners like Germany and Spain – not related to France.

Moreover both Le Pen and Macron do not have any majority in parliament (June 2017) so will come short to muster enough power for their reforms.

So a Macron win will be cheered by the markets, but probably will just page the way for a Le Pen win next Presidential election in 2022.

A Le Pen win will trigger an immediate 5% to 7% market drop, but then the ECB and others will intervene and people will start discuss that she needs parliament support.

No easy win.

 

Update

Macron is the new French President – and the first outside the two traditional party.

The market will briefly cheer, but the result was already “baked in”.

The next challenge for Macron will be the legislative election (June 2017) where is new party will need to form a coalition to govern (first time in France). As the union and the Left are very strong in France, the honeymoon could be quite short lived.

And even if he is friendly with Germany, the economic realities of what France needs versus what Germany needs are vastly differently and somewhat irreconcilable.

But this is the last shot for the elites. If they cannot turn around the economy for the majority of the people in 2022 Le Pen will win.

Front National went to be a fringe party in 2002 (17%) and 2007 (11%) and 24% in the European Election of 2014 to be the second French party in 2017 (34%).

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