French election week!

Posted: May 1, 2017 in Uncategorized

This is the week of the French election!

Macron is still largely in the lead, but his margins are plummeting.

Saturday before the election polls favored Macron 67% vs 33% and now is 61% vs 44% (this includes the new alliance with one of the defeated parties (Stand Up for France).

Why such a collapse in a week? Mainly two reasons;

  • Macron practically decided he already won (which statistically makes sense)
  • All the establishment endorsed him (apart the extreme left – approximately 20%) and practically showed to everybody that he is not the independent candidate, but the elites/bank candidate.

Still the numbers do not lie and he has a strong lead into Sunday. But this elections could be still be a surprise if the people that do not like nor Macron, nor Le Pen (actually the majority) will not vote. Also the extreme left voters could decide that Le Pen is anyway populist against the elites. So much closer to the left than people thinks

This could still sway the elections as Le Pen voters are quite faithful.

So, in my opinion, Macron is in the lead – but his win is not granted.

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