Trump and the next 100 days: The test

Posted: April 26, 2017 in Uncategorized

The first 100 days of President Trump have passed and presented quite a few kept promises on the internal matters (job creation etc) and a few back flip on international issues (Middle East, Russia and China). President Trump showed that is a negotiating President

But mainly the market went up on a good economy and expectations.

The next 100 days will be the test to see if the promises are real or not.

Tomorrow there will be its tax reform – probably will be liked by the market…and bogged down in Congress. And the 28th the US Debt Ceiling.

On trade he will have a bit more success (steel, aluminium, semiconductors, shipbuilding, NAFTA, South Korea FTA, EU, China). There are several blocks, but they can be overturned with the “national interest clause”.  But the clause notion in this case would have to be expanded and give phenomenal overriding powers to President Trump in lat of matters. Hopefully it will be just a negotiating tactic and not the start of a real trade war.

In North Korea President Trump got himself into trouble. He cannot back down, nor Kim Yong Un who, in three years, will have real ICBM missiles that can hit the US. A non solution scenario.

In Syria, President Trump is toying with the idea of boots on the ground

In Iran President Trump hardline risks to make win an hardliner in the next Iranian election (19 May). A too strong position against Iran can create another North Korea situation.

In Russia is all back to Obama-Clinton plus the Russian probe. Attrition will continue in Ukraine, Syria and it is rising also in ex-Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and North Korea.

The next 100 days are the real test for President Trump.


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