Market red line (update)

Posted: April 13, 2017 in Uncategorized

With everyone drawing Red Lines not to be crossed….also the market has drawn one.

The SP500 as an unconfirmed descending pattern (lower highs, but not lower lows) since 1 March with first strong support  at 2,322 (Fibonacci 76.40%).

The pattern is still “bull” , but weakness is increasing -two times it broke an ascending channel (23 March and 10 April).

Until 2,2204 (Fib 23.80%) it can re-rally.

The RED LINE is actually 2,150-2,080. This is the start of the Trump rally and practically 2 years of previous tops.

And if it loses that …all hell would break loose.

Gold (inverse) has a strong signal with the MDA crossing over.

VIX not yet in full alert, but kind of at the base of serious issues with a rise of 41% since 21 March

CBOE SKEW (one off black swan event indicator is instead lower

The spread between 10 years government bond Germany /France is at 0.73 (the max since a while ) and also the Italian bond yield are going straight up (even more than France…meaning that if Melenchon/Le Pen win the biggest causalities will be the Italian banks).

In summary the market needs to pull up quite soon with strength (apart a probable oversold bounce) or we could run into issues. It looks like a spring coil…but we do not know yet which way it will pounce.

Update

Yesterday breach of the SP500 means that the market will at least test the MDA200 (currently 2.290). Being oversold probably it will try and recover the MDA50.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s