Situation Report: North Korea

Posted: April 12, 2017 in Uncategorized

China; 150,000 troop stationed at the border. Initially it was thought as friendly positioning in case of humanitarian catastrophe. Now China draw its red line that if North Korea is threatening the safety of China, it will go for a decapitation blow.

US – the air carrier group is still making its way (being diverted from Darwin). Meanwhile there are massive exercise (already planned) until the 21 April. The Seal Team 6 (which killed Osama Bin Laden) is there training with other special forces.

Russia has a guided -missile cruiser and a tanker near Busan (NK) (again part of a routine mission)

Japan is sending several warship.

Still this is a classic diplomatic posturing – a slow and clear move to send message (unlike the surprise attack on Syria).

North Korea in the usual brash tone is threatening everything, including a pre-emptive nuclear strike (US fonts account for a maximum of 2 to 5 small nuclear devices deliverable).

Apart the nuclear option, there are some issues.

The country is so secret that there is no reliable intelligence able to identify all facilities.

Seul (a city with 20 million inhabitants) is in target range of the well defended North Korea artillery (estimates say that it would take a week to eliminate it, at a cost of a minimum 5,000 civilian death).

North Korea has 1,000s of terrorist sleeper cells in South Korea and US.

North Korea has still a number of kilo class Soviet submarines that still work quite well (in 2010 they sank a South Korean corvette).

And let’s not forget the new realm…a cyber attack specially on US banks and civil infrastructures.

The cost is simply too high. Hopefully

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