France -all bets are off

Posted: April 11, 2017 in Uncategorized

The easy win in second round of Macron (Europeist and establishment candidate) is starting to look shaky.

It looks more like a 4 horse race (Le Pen, Macron, Melechon and Fillon).

An Artificial Intelligence Model which survey all internet traffic points at a Le Pen win. Also a model from Prof Galam suggest a Le Pen win. Both models got Brexit and Trump right.

I would not discount even Melenchon.

But some hard data.

Polls practically give 24% Le Pen – Macron and 18%  Fillon-Melenchon.

If you sum all the votes of the Left and Right there is over 50% of the French people fed up with the establishment. Which is now more nationalist vs globalist than Left/Right.

Voting is not compulsory in France. While Le Pen voters are very committed (usually 85% vote), Macron supporters are less likely so (statistics say 65% will actually vote and 30% say that they could still vote for someone else).

Melechon (extreme left) stunned the pollsters with  5% gain in a week.

Le Pen visit to Russia and comments about the Second World War France Vichy government behavior did not win her any favor.

Fillon stopped bleeding support.

Macron sometimes in his rally say things that succeed to upset most people.

And Assange of Wikileaks promised he will release new secret documents closer to the elections (in February he specially targeted Fillon, Le Pen and Macron).

So models apart, any outcome is possible – even the scariest one Le Pen-Melenchon, specially in a low turnout vote as Le Pen and Melenchon voters are more likely to vote.

The markets agree with this view. The Euro is weakening and the spread between 10 years German Bund and the French one is at 0.71 while in mid March was in the low 0.6.

23 April and 7 May will be very interesting days.

 

 

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