Archive for March, 2017

Since January the Dow most of the time simply drift higher. Specially 3o mins before the close is -0.2 or -0.3% and then drifts to positive.

Why?

Simply since 9 January there is not much volume and mostly ( 55% ) is high frequency trades.

In this situation the American mum and dad keeps on buying US shares Exchange Traded Funds ETF.

These ETF have to allocate these new money and they do so in the last half an hour lifting the index.

Mistery solved.

Lat week the Federal Reserve (Yellen and Co) spoke and sent out a very important message to who was listening for real.

The probability of a March hike suddenly went from under 30% to close to 80% for March (practically unless employment data on Friday are really off the mark – it is certain).

But there was more than that

  • In the last years the FED has been very tactical – data dependent and reacting to events  – almost to counter the gridlock in Congress that blocked everything else. Now the Fed declared a strategic approach in order to set a stable path when Trump policies are so fluid and changeable.

This is subtle, but important change. The last 2 rate hike cycles were in 2004-2006 and 1994-1995.

It was steady and lead the path …to the Asian Financial Crisis (1997) and the Global Financial Crisis (2007).

And Gold, apart an initial wobble, was not the worst place to be at all.

This approach can be MORE important of all the geopolitics issues (Trump, European election) that we have on hand.

Remember the fear of Brexit and Trump disseminated by the elites?

In France they are going a level up with Le Pen (kind of justified as she will wreak havoc for real in their plans).

Seeing that accusing her of misappropriation of EU funds to pay for French party expenses did not work, they try another way.

They just took off her immunity so she can be prosecuted for posting two IS violence pics on twitter in 2015.

This could backfire as French people suddenly could understand who is really against the elites. Not Macron or Fillon.

The First Trump speech

Posted: March 1, 2017 in Uncategorized

Well, President Trump spoke to the Congress.

It was very Presidential with no demagogic attacks.

The Congress looking very split (Democrats practically  always sitting and Republican applauding).

Trump did not say anything new (he confirmed a big tax plan, a USD1 Trillion infrastructure spending), but nothing new detail in how it will be done and financed.

Practically no details and repeat of his conservative agenda and his idea that the US should work for the US and not be the savior of the world.

No major reaction from the market.

Practically -market wise – the FED stole the show as market data show a chance of raising rates in March close to 75% from a lowly base.

The markets will have to wait for a little bit more. Or will they. At the moment futures and commodities are quite stable.

The reality of the Russian and Chinese veto on Syria (use of chem weapon) has…nothing to do with Syria.

It is a way to signal the discontent about the latest US moves to encircle its enemies.

Apart the talks, the move of weapons to Poland and close to Russia is continuing

In China, the US just decided with South Korea to deploy the high altitude missile interceptor defense shield…with the excuse of North Korea, but with a radius perfect to cover Chinese nuclear missiles.

So, after Flynn dismissal, nothing is changed the Deep State has won, as usual.